Nasdaq-100 Index Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

NDXKX Fund  USD 35.20  0.13  0.37%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 35.12 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.24  and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.16. NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nasdaq-100 Index stock prices and determine the direction of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Nasdaq-100 Index cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Nasdaq-100 Index's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Nasdaq-100 Index's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Nasdaq-100 Index is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Nasdaq-100 Index Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 35.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.16.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nasdaq-100 Index's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nasdaq-100 Index Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Nasdaq-100 IndexNasdaq-100 Index Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Nasdaq-100 Index Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nasdaq-100 Index's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nasdaq-100 Index's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.10 and 36.13, respectively. We have considered Nasdaq-100 Index's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
35.20
35.12
Expected Value
36.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.6625
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2445
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0073
SAESum of the absolute errors15.1605
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Nasdaq-100 Index. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Nasdaq-100 Index

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nasdaq-100 Index Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nasdaq-100 Index's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.1935.2036.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
31.6837.6538.66
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
35.0435.1535.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nasdaq-100 Index. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nasdaq-100 Index's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nasdaq-100 Index's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nasdaq-100 Index Fund.

Other Forecasting Options for Nasdaq-100 Index

For every potential investor in NASDAQ-100, whether a beginner or expert, Nasdaq-100 Index's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NASDAQ-100. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nasdaq-100 Index's price trends.

Nasdaq-100 Index Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nasdaq-100 Index by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nasdaq-100 Index Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nasdaq-100 Index's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nasdaq-100 Index's current price.

Nasdaq-100 Index Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nasdaq-100 Index shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Nasdaq 100 Index Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nasdaq-100 Index Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nasdaq-100 Index's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nasdaq-100 mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Nasdaq-100 Index's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nasdaq-100 Index is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nasdaq-100 Index's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.