Nasdaq-100 Index Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
NDXKX Fund | USD 35.20 0.13 0.37% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 35.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.16. NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nasdaq-100 Index stock prices and determine the direction of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index to cross-verify your projections. NASDAQ-100 |
Most investors in Nasdaq-100 Index cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Nasdaq-100 Index's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Nasdaq-100 Index's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Nasdaq-100 Index is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Nasdaq-100 Index Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nasdaq 100 Index Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 35.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nasdaq-100 Index's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nasdaq-100 Index Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
Backtest Nasdaq-100 Index | Nasdaq-100 Index Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Nasdaq-100 Index Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nasdaq-100 Index's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nasdaq-100 Index's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.10 and 36.13, respectively. We have considered Nasdaq-100 Index's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6625 |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2445 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0073 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.1605 |
Predictive Modules for Nasdaq-100 Index
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nasdaq-100 Index Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nasdaq-100 Index's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Nasdaq-100 Index
For every potential investor in NASDAQ-100, whether a beginner or expert, Nasdaq-100 Index's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NASDAQ-100. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nasdaq-100 Index's price trends.Nasdaq-100 Index Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nasdaq-100 Index by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nasdaq-100 Index Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nasdaq-100 Index's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nasdaq-100 Index's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Nasdaq-100 Index Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nasdaq-100 Index shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nasdaq-100 Index mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Nasdaq 100 Index Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
Day Median Price | 35.2 | |||
Day Typical Price | 35.2 | |||
Price Action Indicator | 0.065 | |||
Period Momentum Indicator | 0.13 | |||
Relative Strength Index | 70.47 |
Nasdaq-100 Index Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nasdaq-100 Index's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nasdaq-100 mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 0.7521 | |||
Semi Deviation | 0.7122 | |||
Standard Deviation | 0.986 | |||
Variance | 0.9721 | |||
Downside Variance | 0.831 | |||
Semi Variance | 0.5073 | |||
Expected Short fall | (0.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nasdaq-100 Index to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for NASDAQ-100 Mutual Fund analysis
When running Nasdaq-100 Index's price analysis, check to measure Nasdaq-100 Index's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nasdaq-100 Index is operating at the current time. Most of Nasdaq-100 Index's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nasdaq-100 Index's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nasdaq-100 Index's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nasdaq-100 Index to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum | |
AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. | |
Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. | |
Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk |