Nephros Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NEPH Stock | USD 2.01 0.02 1.01% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nephros on the next trading day is expected to be 1.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.42. Nephros Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nephros stock prices and determine the direction of Nephros's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Nephros' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Nephros' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Nephros' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Nephros fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nephros to cross-verify your projections. Nephros |
Most investors in Nephros cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Nephros' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Nephros' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Nephros works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Nephros Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nephros on the next trading day is expected to be 1.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nephros Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nephros' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nephros Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Nephros | Nephros Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Nephros Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nephros' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nephros' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.39, respectively. We have considered Nephros' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nephros stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nephros stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0093 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0749 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0271 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.4177 |
Predictive Modules for Nephros
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nephros. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nephros' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Nephros
For every potential investor in Nephros, whether a beginner or expert, Nephros' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nephros Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nephros. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nephros' price trends.Nephros Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nephros stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nephros could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nephros by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nephros Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nephros' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nephros' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nephros Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nephros stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nephros shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nephros stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nephros entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Nephros Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nephros' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nephros' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nephros stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.34 | |||
| Variance | 11.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Nephros in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Nephros' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Nephros options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nephros to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Nephros Stock please use our How to Invest in Nephros guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Complementary Tools for Nephros Stock analysis
When running Nephros' price analysis, check to measure Nephros' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nephros is operating at the current time. Most of Nephros' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nephros' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nephros' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nephros to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Correlation Analysis Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
| AI Investment Finder Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities |
Is Nephros' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nephros. If investors know Nephros will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nephros listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.15) | Revenue Per Share 1.371 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.272 | Return On Assets (0.09) | Return On Equity (0.18) |
The market value of Nephros is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nephros that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nephros' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nephros' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nephros' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nephros' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nephros' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nephros is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nephros' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.