Nephros Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

NEPH
 Stock
  

USD 1.01  0.04  3.81%   

Nephros Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nephros historical stock prices and determine the direction of Nephros's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Nephros historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nephros to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Nephros cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Nephros' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Nephros' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Nephros polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Nephros as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Nephros Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Nephros on the next trading day is expected to be 0.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.005069, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nephros Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nephros' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nephros Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest NephrosNephros Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Nephros Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nephros' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nephros' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0101 and 4.51, respectively. We have considered Nephros' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1.01
0.0101
Downside
0.90
Expected Value
4.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nephros stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nephros stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.8259
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0611
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0573
SAESum of the absolute errors3.7262
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Nephros historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Nephros

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nephros. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nephros' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Nephros in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.051.014.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.484.097.70
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
11.2513.4216.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.4-0.4-0.4
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nephros. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nephros' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nephros' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Nephros.

Other Forecasting Options for Nephros

For every potential investor in Nephros, whether a beginner or expert, Nephros' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nephros Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nephros. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nephros' price trends.

Nephros Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nephros stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nephros could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nephros by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Alcon AGAptarGroupAzenta IncAarons IncAdvance Auto PartsAsbury AutomotiveAdient PLCAmerican Eagle OutfittersPlayAGSAutolivAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroup
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nephros Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nephros' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nephros' current price.

Nephros Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nephros' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nephros' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Nephros stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Nephros in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Nephros' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Nephros options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Nephros using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nephros to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Nephros price analysis, check to measure Nephros' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nephros is operating at the current time. Most of Nephros' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nephros' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nephros' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nephros to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Nephros' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nephros. If investors know Nephros will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nephros listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
10.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.07) 
Return On Assets
(0.23) 
Return On Equity
(0.43) 
The market value of Nephros is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nephros that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nephros' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nephros' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nephros' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nephros' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nephros' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nephros value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nephros' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.