Neptune Wellness Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Neptune Wellness Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be -0.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.43. Neptune Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Neptune Wellness stock prices and determine the direction of Neptune Wellness Solutions's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Neptune Wellness' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey. Neptune |
Most investors in Neptune Wellness cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Neptune Wellness' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Neptune Wellness' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Neptune Wellness is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Neptune Wellness Solutions value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Neptune Wellness Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Neptune Wellness Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be -0.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Neptune Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Neptune Wellness' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Neptune Wellness Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Neptune Wellness stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Neptune Wellness stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.2258 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0398 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.223372036854776E14 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.4275 |
Predictive Modules for Neptune Wellness
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Neptune Wellness Sol. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Neptune Wellness' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
View Neptune Wellness Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Neptune Wellness Risk Indicators
The analysis of Neptune Wellness' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Neptune Wellness' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting neptune stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 10.54 | |||
| Variance | 111.09 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Neptune Wellness in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Neptune Wellness' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Neptune Wellness options trading.
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Other Consideration for investing in Neptune Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Neptune Wellness Sol check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Neptune Wellness' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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