Loomis Sayles Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

NERNX -  USA Fund  

USD 13.61  0.01  0.07%

Loomis Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Loomis Sayles historical stock prices and determine the direction of Loomis Sayles Core's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Loomis Sayles historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Loomis Sayles to cross-verify your projections.

Loomis Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
Refresh
Most investors in Loomis Sayles cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Loomis Sayles' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Loomis Sayles' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Loomis Sayles is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Loomis Sayles Core value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Loomis Sayles Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Loomis Sayles Core on the next trading day is expected to be 13.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.018591, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00058659, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.13. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Loomis Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Loomis Sayles' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Loomis Sayles Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Loomis SaylesLoomis Sayles Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Loomis Sayles Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Loomis Sayles' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Loomis Sayles' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.46 and 13.82, respectively. We have considered Loomis Sayles' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.61
3rd of December 2021
13.64
Expected Value
13.82
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Loomis Sayles mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Loomis Sayles mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.6693
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0186
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0014
SAESum of the absolute errors1.1341
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Loomis Sayles Core. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Loomis Sayles. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Loomis Sayles

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Loomis Sayles Core. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Loomis Sayles' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Loomis Sayles in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
13.4313.6113.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.4613.6413.82
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
13.5413.6413.73
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Loomis Sayles. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Loomis Sayles' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Loomis Sayles' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Loomis Sayles Core.

Other Forecasting Options for Loomis Sayles

For every potential investor in Loomis, whether a beginner or expert, Loomis Sayles' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Loomis Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Loomis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Loomis Sayles' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Loomis Sayles mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Loomis Sayles could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Loomis Sayles by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Loomis Sayles Core Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Loomis Sayles' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Loomis Sayles' current price.

Loomis Sayles Risk Indicators

The analysis of Loomis Sayles' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Loomis Sayles' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Loomis Sayles stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Loomis Sayles without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Positions Ratings Now

   

Positions Ratings

Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
All  Next Launch Module

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Loomis Sayles Core using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Loomis Sayles to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Loomis Sayles Core information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Loomis Sayles' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

Complementary Tools for Loomis Mutual Fund analysis

When running Loomis Sayles Core price analysis, check to measure Loomis Sayles' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Loomis Sayles is operating at the current time. Most of Loomis Sayles' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Loomis Sayles' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Loomis Sayles' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Loomis Sayles to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Go
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Go
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Go
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Go
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Go
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Stock Screener
Find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Go
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Go
Please note, there is a significant difference between Loomis Sayles' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Loomis Sayles value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Loomis Sayles' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.