Minerva Neurosciences Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

NERV Stock  USD 2.58  0.08  3.20%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Minerva Neurosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 2.58 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.47  and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.34. Minerva Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Minerva Neurosciences stock prices and determine the direction of Minerva Neurosciences's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Minerva Neurosciences' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Minerva Neurosciences' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Minerva Neurosciences' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Minerva Neurosciences fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Minerva Neurosciences to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Minerva Stock please use our How to Invest in Minerva Neurosciences guide.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to -0.0027 in 2024. Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 0.02 in 2024. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 4.6 M in 2024. Net Loss is likely to drop to about (38.8 M) in 2024.
Most investors in Minerva Neurosciences cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Minerva Neurosciences' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Minerva Neurosciences' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Minerva Neurosciences is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Minerva Neurosciences Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Minerva Neurosciences on the next trading day is expected to be 2.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Minerva Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Minerva Neurosciences' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Minerva Neurosciences Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Minerva NeurosciencesMinerva Neurosciences Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Minerva Neurosciences Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Minerva Neurosciences' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Minerva Neurosciences' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 12.43, respectively. We have considered Minerva Neurosciences' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.58
2.58
Expected Value
12.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Minerva Neurosciences stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Minerva Neurosciences stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.971
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0876
MADMean absolute deviation0.4723
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0852
SAESum of the absolute errors28.335
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Minerva Neurosciences price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Minerva Neurosciences. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Minerva Neurosciences

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Minerva Neurosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Minerva Neurosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.112.2112.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.234.6614.51
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.0111.0012.21
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.2-1.2-1.2
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Minerva Neurosciences. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Minerva Neurosciences' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Minerva Neurosciences' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Minerva Neurosciences.

Other Forecasting Options for Minerva Neurosciences

For every potential investor in Minerva, whether a beginner or expert, Minerva Neurosciences' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Minerva Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Minerva. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Minerva Neurosciences' price trends.

Minerva Neurosciences Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Minerva Neurosciences stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Minerva Neurosciences could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Minerva Neurosciences by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Minerva Neurosciences Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Minerva Neurosciences' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Minerva Neurosciences' current price.

Minerva Neurosciences Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Minerva Neurosciences stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Minerva Neurosciences shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Minerva Neurosciences stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Minerva Neurosciences entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Minerva Neurosciences Risk Indicators

The analysis of Minerva Neurosciences' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Minerva Neurosciences' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting minerva stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Minerva Neurosciences is a strong investment it is important to analyze Minerva Neurosciences' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Minerva Neurosciences' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Minerva Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Minerva Neurosciences to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Minerva Stock please use our How to Invest in Minerva Neurosciences guide.
You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for Minerva Stock analysis

When running Minerva Neurosciences' price analysis, check to measure Minerva Neurosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Minerva Neurosciences is operating at the current time. Most of Minerva Neurosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Minerva Neurosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Minerva Neurosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Minerva Neurosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Minerva Neurosciences' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Minerva Neurosciences. If investors know Minerva will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Minerva Neurosciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(4.61)
Return On Assets
(0.26)
Return On Equity
(6.75)
The market value of Minerva Neurosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Minerva that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Minerva Neurosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Minerva Neurosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Minerva Neurosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Minerva Neurosciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Minerva Neurosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Minerva Neurosciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Minerva Neurosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.