New Relic Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| NEWRDelisted Stock | USD 86.99 0.01 0.01% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Relic on the next trading day is expected to be 87.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.81. New Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast New Relic stock prices and determine the direction of New Relic's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of New Relic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in housing. New |
Most investors in New Relic cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the New Relic's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets New Relic's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for New Relic - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When New Relic prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in New Relic price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of New Relic. New Relic Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Relic on the next trading day is expected to be 87.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Relic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
New Relic Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest New Relic | New Relic Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Relic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Relic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0274 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1153 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.8052 |
Predictive Modules for New Relic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Relic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Relic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
New Relic Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Relic stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Relic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Relic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
New Relic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Relic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Relic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Relic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Relic entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
New Relic Risk Indicators
The analysis of New Relic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Relic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1304 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1913 | |||
| Variance | 0.0366 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0269 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.03) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards New Relic in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, New Relic's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from New Relic options trading.
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The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in housing. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Other Consideration for investing in New Stock
If you are still planning to invest in New Relic check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the New Relic's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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