Natural Gas Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

NGS Stock  USD 19.43  0.33  1.67%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Natural Gas Services on the next trading day is expected to be 19.65 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.39  and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.96. Natural Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Natural Gas stock prices and determine the direction of Natural Gas Services's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Natural Gas' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Natural Gas' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Natural Gas' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Natural Gas fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Natural Gas to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Natural Gas' Payables Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.39 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 1.82 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 12.1 M in 2024. Net Loss is likely to gain to about (486.5 K) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Natural Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Natural Gas' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Natural Gas' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Natural Gas stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Natural Gas' open interest, investors have to compare it to Natural Gas' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Natural Gas is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Natural. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Natural Gas cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Natural Gas' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Natural Gas' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Natural Gas polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Natural Gas Services as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Natural Gas Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Natural Gas Services on the next trading day is expected to be 19.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Natural Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Natural Gas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Natural Gas Stock Forecast Pattern

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Natural Gas Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Natural Gas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Natural Gas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.41 and 21.89, respectively. We have considered Natural Gas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.43
19.65
Expected Value
21.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Natural Gas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Natural Gas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.4714
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3865
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0242
SAESum of the absolute errors23.9617
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Natural Gas historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Natural Gas

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natural Gas Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Gas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.1619.4021.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.4922.7324.97
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
21.3923.5026.09
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.040.060.1
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Natural Gas. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Natural Gas' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Natural Gas' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Natural Gas Services.

Other Forecasting Options for Natural Gas

For every potential investor in Natural, whether a beginner or expert, Natural Gas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Natural Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Natural. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Natural Gas' price trends.

Natural Gas Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Natural Gas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Natural Gas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Natural Gas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Natural Gas Services Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Natural Gas' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Natural Gas' current price.

Natural Gas Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Natural Gas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Natural Gas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Natural Gas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Natural Gas Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Natural Gas Risk Indicators

The analysis of Natural Gas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Natural Gas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting natural stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Natural Gas in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Natural Gas' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Natural Gas options trading.

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When determining whether Natural Gas Services is a strong investment it is important to analyze Natural Gas' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Natural Gas' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Natural Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Natural Gas to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Natural Gas Services information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Natural Gas' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

Complementary Tools for Natural Stock analysis

When running Natural Gas' price analysis, check to measure Natural Gas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Gas is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Gas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Gas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Gas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Gas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Natural Gas' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Gas. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Gas listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.116
Earnings Share
0.18
Revenue Per Share
8.76
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.423
Return On Assets
0.0151
The market value of Natural Gas Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Gas' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Gas' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Gas' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Gas' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Gas' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Natural Gas is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Gas' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.