Nio Inc Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

NIO
 Stock
  

USD 23.31  0.77  3.20%   

Nio Inc Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nio Inc historical stock prices and determine the direction of Nio Inc ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Nio Inc historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nio Inc to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-01 Nio Inc Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Nio Inc's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Nio Inc's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Nio Inc stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Nio Inc's open interest, investors have to compare it to Nio Inc's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Nio Inc is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Nio Inc. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Nio Inc cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Nio Inc's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Nio Inc's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Nio Inc is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Nio Inc ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Nio Inc ADR Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Nio Inc's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Nio Inc. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Nio Inc can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Nio Inc ADR. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Nio Inc's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Nio Inc's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Nio Inc's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Nio Inc.

Nio Inc Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nio Inc ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 25.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.36. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nio Inc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nio Inc's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nio Inc Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Nio IncNio Inc Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Nio Inc Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nio Inc's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nio Inc's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.02 and 31.12, respectively. We have considered Nio Inc's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 23.31
25.07
Expected Value
31.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nio Inc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nio Inc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.3971
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9076
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0523
SAESum of the absolute errors55.3642
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Nio Inc ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Nio Inc. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Nio Inc

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nio Inc ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nio Inc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Nio Inc in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
18.3424.3930.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
21.6733.0439.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
15.5818.3821.19
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0062.7080.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nio Inc. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nio Inc's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nio Inc's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Nio Inc ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Nio Inc

For every potential investor in Nio Inc, whether a beginner or expert, Nio Inc's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nio Inc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nio Inc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nio Inc's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nio Inc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nio Inc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nio Inc by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Nio Inc ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nio Inc's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nio Inc's current price.

Nio Inc Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nio Inc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nio Inc shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nio Inc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nio Inc ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nio Inc Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nio Inc's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nio Inc's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Nio Inc stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Nio Inc Investors Sentiment

The influence of Nio Inc's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Nio Inc. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Nio Inc Implied Volatility

    
  88.11  
Nio Inc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nio Inc ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nio Inc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nio Inc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nio Inc's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Nio Inc in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Nio Inc's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Nio Inc options trading.

Current Sentiment - NIO

Nio Inc ADR Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Nio Inc ADR. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Nio Inc ADR? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nio Inc to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Nio Inc ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Nio Inc's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fund Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.

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When running Nio Inc ADR price analysis, check to measure Nio Inc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nio Inc is operating at the current time. Most of Nio Inc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nio Inc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nio Inc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nio Inc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Nio Inc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nio Inc. If investors know Nio Inc will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nio Inc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
40.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.24
Return On Assets
-0.0539
Return On Equity
-0.22
The market value of Nio Inc ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nio Inc that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nio Inc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nio Inc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nio Inc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nio Inc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nio Inc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nio Inc value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nio Inc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.