Northern Oil Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

NOG Stock

USD 28.35 0.67 2.42%

Northern Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Northern Oil historical stock prices and determine the direction of Northern Oil Gas's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Northern Oil historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Northern Oil naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Northern Oil Gas systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Northern Oil fundamentals over time.

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Oil to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Northern Stock please use our How to Invest in Northern Oil guide.

Northern Oil Accounts Payable Turnover is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Accounts Payable Turnover was reported at 16.19. The current Accrued Expenses Turnover is estimated to increase to 11.84, while Receivables Turnover is projected to decrease to 5.70. . Northern Oil Weighted Average Shares is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Weighted Average Shares was reported at 78.56 Million. The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 93.5 M, while Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is projected to decrease to (55.9 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2023-04-21 Northern Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Northern Oil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Northern Oil's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Northern Oil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.

Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Northern Oil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Northern Oil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Northern Oil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Northern. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Most investors in Northern Oil cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Northern Oil's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Northern Oil's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

Northern Oil simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Northern Oil Gas are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Northern Oil Gas prices get older.

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Northern Oil Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northern Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 28.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.55.

Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northern Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Northern Oil Stock Forecast Pattern

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Northern Oil Price Prediction

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Northern Oil Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Northern Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northern Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.34 and 31.36, respectively. We have considered Northern Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

Market Value 28.35

25.34

Downside

28.35

Expected Value

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

31.36

Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northern Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northern Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	116.0994
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	0.0285
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.7258
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0234
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	43.55

This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Northern Oil Gas forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Northern Oil observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Northern Oil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northern Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Northern Oil in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated Value	High
25.28	28.29	31.30

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real Value	High
25.52	36.55	39.56

Details

Bollinger

Band Projection (param)

Lower	Middle Band	Upper
25.90	27.68	29.45

Details

12 Analysts

Consensus

Low	Target Price	High
35.00	43.69	54.00

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northern Oil. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northern Oil's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northern Oil's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Northern Oil Gas.

Other Forecasting Options for Northern Oil

For every potential investor in Northern, whether a beginner or expert, Northern Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northern Oil's price trends.

Northern Oil Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northern Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northern Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northern Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Monster Beverage CorpPepsiCoDiamond Estates WinesCelsius HoldingsSonos IncLianDi Clean TechnologyAcademy Sports OutdoAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron Corp

Risk & Return

Correlation

Northern Oil Gas Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Northern Oil's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Northern Oil's current price.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

Northern Oil Risk Indicators

The analysis of Northern Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Northern Oil stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

	Mean Deviation	2.41
	Standard Deviation	3.06
	Variance	9.36

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Northern Oil without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Oil to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Northern Stock please use our How to Invest in Northern Oil guide. You can also try Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Northern Oil Gas price analysis, check to measure Northern Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Northern Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Oil. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

(0.22)

Dividend Share

0.88

Earnings Share

9.14

Revenue Per Share

23.265

Quarterly Revenue Growth

0.328

The market value of Northern Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Northern Oil value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average

Northern Oil Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

Open Interest Agains t 2023-04-21 Northern Option Contracts

Northern Oil Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March

Northern Oil Stock Forecast Pattern

Northern Oil Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

Predictive Modules for Northern Oil

Other Forecasting Options for Northern Oil

Northern Oil Related Equities

Northern Oil Gas Technical and Predictive Analytics

Northern Oil Risk Indicators

Be your own money manager

Did you try this?

Run Price Transformation Now

Price Transformation

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

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