Northern Oil Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

NOG Stock  USD 33.49  1.13  3.26%   
Northern Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Northern Oil historical stock prices and determine the direction of Northern Oil Gas's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Northern Oil historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Northern Oil naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Northern Oil Gas systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Northern Oil fundamentals over time.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Oil to cross-verify your projections.
  
Northern Oil Inventory Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Inventory Turnover was at 6.05. The current year Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to grow to 9.62, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is forecasted to decline to 2.59. . As of January 30, 2023, Weighted Average Shares is expected to decline to about 165.6 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to decline to about 165.6 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2023-02-17 Northern Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Northern Oil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Northern Oil's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Northern Oil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Northern Oil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Northern Oil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Northern Oil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Northern. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Northern Oil cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Northern Oil's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Northern Oil's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Northern Oil - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Northern Oil prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Northern Oil price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Northern Oil Gas.

Northern Oil Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Northern Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 33.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 1.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northern Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Northern Oil Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Northern OilNorthern Oil Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Northern Oil Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Northern Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northern Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.05 and 36.68, respectively. We have considered Northern Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 33.49
33.87
Expected Value
36.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northern Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northern Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1686
MADMean absolute deviation0.8379
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0254
SAESum of the absolute errors49.439
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Northern Oil observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Northern Oil Gas observations.

Predictive Modules for Northern Oil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northern Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Northern Oil in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
30.9133.7336.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
25.1727.9837.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
30.6832.6134.54
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0028.9243.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northern Oil. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northern Oil's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northern Oil's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Northern Oil Gas.

Other Forecasting Options for Northern Oil

For every potential investor in Northern, whether a beginner or expert, Northern Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northern Oil's price trends.

Northern Oil Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northern Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northern Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northern Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Brown-FormanSunstone Hotel InvestorsGeneral MotorsTata Motors LimitedMarriott InternationalWyndham Hotels ResortsMagna InternationalAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Northern Oil Gas Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Northern Oil's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Northern Oil's current price.

Northern Oil Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Northern Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Northern Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Northern Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Northern Oil Gas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Northern Oil Risk Indicators

The analysis of Northern Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Northern Oil stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Northern Oil Investors Sentiment

The influence of Northern Oil's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Northern. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Northern Oil's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Northern. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Northern can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Northern Oil Gas. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Northern Oil's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Northern Oil's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Northern Oil's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Northern Oil.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Northern Oil in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Northern Oil's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Northern Oil options trading.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Northern Oil Gas using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern Oil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Northern Oil Gas price analysis, check to measure Northern Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Competition Analyzer
Analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Stock Screener
Find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Is Northern Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Oil. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
51.103
Market Capitalization
B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.051
Return On Assets
0.2997
Return On Equity
2.9123
The market value of Northern Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Northern Oil value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.