Natura Co Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| NTCO Stock | USD 83.80 77.10 1,151% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Natura Co Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 15.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 180.42. Natura Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Natura Co stock prices and determine the direction of Natura Co Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Natura Co's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Natura Co's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Natura Co's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Natura Co fundamentals over time.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators. Natura |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Natura Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Natura Co's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Natura Co's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Natura Co stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Natura Co's open interest, investors have to compare it to Natura Co's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Natura Co is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Natura. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Natura Co cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Natura Co's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Natura Co's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Natura Co - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Natura Co prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Natura Co price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Natura Co Holding. Natura Co Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Natura Co Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 15.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.06, mean absolute percentage error of 97.74, and the sum of the absolute errors of 180.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Natura Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Natura Co's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Natura Co Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Natura Co stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Natura Co stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5298 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.058 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.2855 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 180.4199 |
Predictive Modules for Natura Co
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natura Co Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natura Co's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natura Co Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Natura Co stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Natura Co could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Natura Co by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Natura Co Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Natura Co stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Natura Co shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Natura Co stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Natura Co Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Natura Co Risk Indicators
The analysis of Natura Co's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Natura Co's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting natura stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.94 | |||
| Variance | 8.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Natura Co in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Natura Co's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Natura Co options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators. Note that the Natura Co Holding information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Natura Co's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Complementary Tools for Natura Stock analysis
When running Natura Co's price analysis, check to measure Natura Co's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natura Co is operating at the current time. Most of Natura Co's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natura Co's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natura Co's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natura Co to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Natura Co's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natura Co. If investors know Natura will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natura Co listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.748 | Earnings Share (0.58) | Revenue Per Share 50.624 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) | Return On Assets 0.0118 |
The market value of Natura Co Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natura that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natura Co's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natura Co's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natura Co's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natura Co's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natura Co's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Natura Co is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natura Co's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.