NetScout Systems Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

NTCT Stock  USD 21.81  0.34  1.58%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NetScout Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 21.81 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.44  and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.40. NetScout Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NetScout Systems stock prices and determine the direction of NetScout Systems's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NetScout Systems' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although NetScout Systems' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of NetScout Systems' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of NetScout Systems fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NetScout Systems to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy NetScout Stock please use our How to Invest in NetScout Systems guide.
  
At this time, NetScout Systems' Fixed Asset Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.59 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 5.86 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 72 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 54.3 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 NetScout Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast NetScout Systems' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in NetScout Systems' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for NetScout Systems stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current NetScout Systems' open interest, investors have to compare it to NetScout Systems' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of NetScout Systems is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in NetScout. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in NetScout Systems cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the NetScout Systems' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets NetScout Systems' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for NetScout Systems - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When NetScout Systems prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in NetScout Systems price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of NetScout Systems.

NetScout Systems Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NetScout Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 21.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NetScout Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NetScout Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

NetScout Systems Stock Forecast Pattern

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NetScout Systems Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting NetScout Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NetScout Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.17 and 24.45, respectively. We have considered NetScout Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.81
21.81
Expected Value
24.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NetScout Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NetScout Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0907
MADMean absolute deviation0.44
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0202
SAESum of the absolute errors26.4007
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past NetScout Systems observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older NetScout Systems observations.

Predictive Modules for NetScout Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NetScout Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NetScout Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.8421.4724.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.3226.3128.94
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.2421.4721.70
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
28.1230.9034.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as NetScout Systems. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against NetScout Systems' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, NetScout Systems' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in NetScout Systems.

Other Forecasting Options for NetScout Systems

For every potential investor in NetScout, whether a beginner or expert, NetScout Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NetScout Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NetScout. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NetScout Systems' price trends.

NetScout Systems Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NetScout Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NetScout Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NetScout Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

NetScout Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NetScout Systems' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NetScout Systems' current price.

NetScout Systems Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NetScout Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NetScout Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NetScout Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NetScout Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

NetScout Systems Risk Indicators

The analysis of NetScout Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NetScout Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting netscout stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

NetScout Systems Investors Sentiment

The influence of NetScout Systems' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in NetScout. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to NetScout Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in NetScout. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding NetScout can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around NetScout Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
NetScout Systems' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for NetScout Systems' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average NetScout Systems' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on NetScout Systems.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NetScout Systems in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NetScout Systems' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NetScout Systems options trading.

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When determining whether NetScout Systems is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if NetScout Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Netscout Systems Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Netscout Systems Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NetScout Systems to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy NetScout Stock please use our How to Invest in NetScout Systems guide.
Note that the NetScout Systems information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other NetScout Systems' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.

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When running NetScout Systems' price analysis, check to measure NetScout Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NetScout Systems is operating at the current time. Most of NetScout Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NetScout Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NetScout Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NetScout Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NetScout Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NetScout Systems. If investors know NetScout will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NetScout Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.208
Earnings Share
(1.65)
Revenue Per Share
11.674
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.19)
Return On Assets
0.012
The market value of NetScout Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NetScout that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NetScout Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NetScout Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NetScout Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NetScout Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NetScout Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NetScout Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NetScout Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.