Northern Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

NUESX -  USA Fund  

USD 17.86  0.36  1.98%

Northern Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Northern historical stock prices and determine the direction of Northern US Quality's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Northern historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in Northern cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Northern's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Northern's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Northern is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Northern US Quality value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Northern Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Northern US Quality on the next trading day is expected to be 17.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.017848, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.14. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northern Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northern's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Northern Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Northern Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Northern's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Northern's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.24 and 18.52, respectively. We have considered Northern's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.86
26th of September 2021
17.88
Expected Value
18.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northern mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northern mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.0846
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1006
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0056
SAESum of the absolute errors6.1351
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Northern US Quality. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Northern. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Northern

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern US Quality. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Northern's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Northern in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
17.2217.8618.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
16.8017.4418.08
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
17.7718.2118.64
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Northern. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Northern's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Northern's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Northern US Quality.

Other Forecasting Options for Northern

For every potential investor in Northern, whether a beginner or expert, Northern's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Northern Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Northern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Northern's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Northern mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Northern could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Northern by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Northern US Quality Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Northern's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Northern's current price.

Northern Risk Indicators

The analysis of Northern's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Northern stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Northern without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Northern US Quality using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Northern to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Northern US Quality information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Northern's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

Complementary Tools for Northern Mutual Fund analysis

When running Northern US Quality price analysis, check to measure Northern's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern is operating at the current time. Most of Northern's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Northern value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.