Nationwide Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| NWCSX Fund | USD 8.68 0.03 0.34% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nationwide E Plus on the next trading day is expected to be 8.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.69. Nationwide Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nationwide stock prices and determine the direction of Nationwide E Plus's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Nationwide's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nationwide to cross-verify your projections. Nationwide |
Most investors in Nationwide cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Nationwide's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Nationwide's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Nationwide - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Nationwide prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Nationwide price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Nationwide E Plus. Nationwide Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nationwide E Plus on the next trading day is expected to be 8.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nationwide Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nationwide's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nationwide Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Nationwide Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nationwide's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nationwide's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.27 and 9.09, respectively. We have considered Nationwide's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nationwide mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nationwide mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0032 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0286 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0032 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.69 |
Predictive Modules for Nationwide
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nationwide E Plus. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nationwide's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Nationwide
For every potential investor in Nationwide, whether a beginner or expert, Nationwide's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nationwide Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nationwide. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nationwide's price trends.Nationwide Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nationwide mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nationwide could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nationwide by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nationwide E Plus Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nationwide's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nationwide's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nationwide Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nationwide mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nationwide shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nationwide mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Nationwide E Plus entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.68 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.25 |
Nationwide Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nationwide's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nationwide's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nationwide mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.312 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4041 | |||
| Variance | 0.1633 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Nationwide in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Nationwide's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Nationwide options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nationwide to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.