Onto Innovation Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

ONTO Stock  USD 180.49  0.01  0.01%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Onto Innovation on the next trading day is expected to be 181.47 with a mean absolute deviation of  4.95  and the sum of the absolute errors of 286.85. Onto Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Onto Innovation stock prices and determine the direction of Onto Innovation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Onto Innovation's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Onto Innovation's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Onto Innovation's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Onto Innovation fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Onto Innovation to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Onto Stock, please use our How to Invest in Onto Innovation guide.
  
At this time, Onto Innovation's Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 12.49, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 4.14. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 269.7 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop about 29 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Onto Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Onto Innovation's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Onto Innovation's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Onto Innovation stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Onto Innovation's open interest, investors have to compare it to Onto Innovation's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Onto Innovation is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Onto. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Onto Innovation cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Onto Innovation's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Onto Innovation's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Onto Innovation is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Onto Innovation 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Onto Innovation on the next trading day is expected to be 181.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.95, mean absolute percentage error of 39.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 286.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Onto Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Onto Innovation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Onto Innovation Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Onto InnovationOnto Innovation Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Onto Innovation Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Onto Innovation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Onto Innovation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 178.37 and 184.56, respectively. We have considered Onto Innovation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
180.49
178.37
Downside
181.47
Expected Value
184.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Onto Innovation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Onto Innovation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2834
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.7294
MADMean absolute deviation4.9457
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.029
SAESum of the absolute errors286.8525
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Onto Innovation. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Onto Innovation and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Onto Innovation

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Onto Innovation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Onto Innovation's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
177.03180.13183.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
146.58149.68198.54
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
139.91153.75170.66
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.141.171.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Onto Innovation. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Onto Innovation's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Onto Innovation's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Onto Innovation.

Other Forecasting Options for Onto Innovation

For every potential investor in Onto, whether a beginner or expert, Onto Innovation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Onto Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Onto. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Onto Innovation's price trends.

Onto Innovation Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Onto Innovation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Onto Innovation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Onto Innovation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Onto Innovation Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Onto Innovation's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Onto Innovation's current price.

Onto Innovation Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Onto Innovation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Onto Innovation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Onto Innovation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Onto Innovation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Onto Innovation Risk Indicators

The analysis of Onto Innovation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Onto Innovation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting onto stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Onto Innovation Investors Sentiment

The influence of Onto Innovation's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Onto. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Onto Innovation's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Onto. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Onto can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Onto Innovation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Onto Innovation's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Onto Innovation's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Onto Innovation's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Onto Innovation.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Onto Innovation in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Onto Innovation's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Onto Innovation options trading.

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When determining whether Onto Innovation offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Onto Innovation's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Onto Innovation Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Onto Innovation Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Onto Innovation to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Onto Stock, please use our How to Invest in Onto Innovation guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

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Is Onto Innovation's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Onto Innovation. If investors know Onto will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Onto Innovation listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.54)
Earnings Share
2.45
Revenue Per Share
16.66
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.14)
Return On Assets
0.0392
The market value of Onto Innovation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Onto that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Onto Innovation's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Onto Innovation's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Onto Innovation's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Onto Innovation's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Onto Innovation's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Onto Innovation is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Onto Innovation's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.