OptiNose Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

OPTN Stock  USD 1.48  0.02  1.33%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of OptiNose on the next trading day is expected to be 1.79 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.12  and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.51. OptiNose Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast OptiNose stock prices and determine the direction of OptiNose's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of OptiNose's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although OptiNose's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of OptiNose's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of OptiNose fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OptiNose to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in OptiNose Stock, please use our How to Invest in OptiNose guide.
  
At this time, OptiNose's Payables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 36.73, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 0.73. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 117.7 M, while Net Loss is likely to drop (70.7 M).
Most investors in OptiNose cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the OptiNose's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets OptiNose's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through OptiNose price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

OptiNose Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of OptiNose on the next trading day is expected to be 1.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.51.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OptiNose Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OptiNose's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OptiNose Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest OptiNoseOptiNose Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

OptiNose Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OptiNose's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OptiNose's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.99, respectively. We have considered OptiNose's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.48
1.79
Expected Value
5.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OptiNose stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OptiNose stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1417
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1211
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0801
SAESum of the absolute errors7.5082
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as OptiNose historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for OptiNose

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OptiNose. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of OptiNose's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.071.475.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.091.816.01
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
2.733.003.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as OptiNose. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against OptiNose's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, OptiNose's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in OptiNose.

Other Forecasting Options for OptiNose

For every potential investor in OptiNose, whether a beginner or expert, OptiNose's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OptiNose Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OptiNose. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OptiNose's price trends.

OptiNose Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OptiNose stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OptiNose could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OptiNose by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OptiNose Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OptiNose's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OptiNose's current price.

OptiNose Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OptiNose stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OptiNose shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OptiNose stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OptiNose entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

OptiNose Risk Indicators

The analysis of OptiNose's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OptiNose's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting optinose stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether OptiNose offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of OptiNose's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Optinose Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Optinose Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OptiNose to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in OptiNose Stock, please use our How to Invest in OptiNose guide.
You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

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Is OptiNose's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OptiNose. If investors know OptiNose will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OptiNose listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.32)
Revenue Per Share
0.633
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.05)
Return On Assets
(0.11)
Return On Equity
(10.51)
The market value of OptiNose is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OptiNose that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OptiNose's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OptiNose's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OptiNose's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OptiNose's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OptiNose's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if OptiNose is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OptiNose's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.