OReilly Automotive Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ORLY Stock | USD 1,091 10.12 0.92% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 1,105 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 616.64. OReilly Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast OReilly Automotive stock prices and determine the direction of OReilly Automotive's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of OReilly Automotive's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although OReilly Automotive's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of OReilly Automotive's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of OReilly Automotive fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OReilly Automotive to cross-verify your projections. OReilly |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 OReilly Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast OReilly Automotive's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in OReilly Automotive's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for OReilly Automotive stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current OReilly Automotive's open interest, investors have to compare it to OReilly Automotive's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of OReilly Automotive is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in OReilly. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in OReilly Automotive cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the OReilly Automotive's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets OReilly Automotive's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for OReilly Automotive is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of OReilly Automotive value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. OReilly Automotive Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 1,105 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.11, mean absolute percentage error of 159.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 616.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OReilly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OReilly Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
OReilly Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest OReilly Automotive | OReilly Automotive Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
OReilly Automotive Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting OReilly Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OReilly Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,104 and 1,106, respectively. We have considered OReilly Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OReilly Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OReilly Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.1841 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.1088 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 616.6365 |
Predictive Modules for OReilly Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OReilly Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of OReilly Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for OReilly Automotive
For every potential investor in OReilly, whether a beginner or expert, OReilly Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OReilly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OReilly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OReilly Automotive's price trends.OReilly Automotive Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OReilly Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OReilly Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OReilly Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
OReilly Automotive Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OReilly Automotive's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OReilly Automotive's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
OReilly Automotive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OReilly Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OReilly Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OReilly Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OReilly Automotive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0216 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.42) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1093.07 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1092.36 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 23.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (7.19) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (10.12) |
OReilly Automotive Risk Indicators
The analysis of OReilly Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OReilly Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oreilly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8656 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Variance | 1.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
OReilly Automotive Investors Sentiment
The influence of OReilly Automotive's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in OReilly. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to OReilly Automotive's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in OReilly. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding OReilly can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around OReilly Automotive. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
OReilly Automotive's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for OReilly Automotive's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average OReilly Automotive's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on OReilly Automotive.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards OReilly Automotive in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, OReilly Automotive's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from OReilly Automotive options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OReilly Automotive to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy OReilly Stock please use our How to Invest in OReilly Automotive guide.You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Complementary Tools for OReilly Stock analysis
When running OReilly Automotive's price analysis, check to measure OReilly Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OReilly Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of OReilly Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OReilly Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OReilly Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OReilly Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is OReilly Automotive's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of OReilly Automotive. If investors know OReilly will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about OReilly Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.107 | Earnings Share 38.42 | Revenue Per Share 261.468 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.051 | Return On Assets 0.1504 |
The market value of OReilly Automotive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of OReilly that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of OReilly Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is OReilly Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because OReilly Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect OReilly Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between OReilly Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if OReilly Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, OReilly Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.