Oak Street Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Oak Street works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Oak Street Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oak Street Health on the next trading day is expected to be 39.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 1.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.82.

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oak Street stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oak Street stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Oak Street Health prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Oak Street Health trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Oak Street observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Oak Street

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oak Street Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 39.00 39.00 39.00 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 30.38 30.38 42.90 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 38.03 38.80 39.56 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Oak Street. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Oak Street's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Oak Street's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Oak Street Health.

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