Oatly Group Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

OTLY Stock  USD 1.13  0.04  3.67%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oatly Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 1.14 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.04  and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.35. Oatly Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Oatly Group stock prices and determine the direction of Oatly Group AB's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Oatly Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Oatly Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Oatly Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Oatly Group fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oatly Group to cross-verify your projections.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to 5.15 in 2024. Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 5.46 in 2024. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 642 M in 2024, despite the fact that Net Loss is likely to grow to (335.6 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Oatly Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Oatly Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Oatly Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Oatly Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Oatly Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to Oatly Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Oatly Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Oatly. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Oatly Group cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Oatly Group's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Oatly Group's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Oatly Group - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Oatly Group prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Oatly Group price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Oatly Group AB.

Oatly Group Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Oatly Group AB on the next trading day is expected to be 1.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.35.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oatly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oatly Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Oatly Group Stock Forecast Pattern

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Oatly Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Oatly Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oatly Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.51, respectively. We have considered Oatly Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.13
1.14
Expected Value
5.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oatly Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oatly Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0091
MADMean absolute deviation0.0392
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0348
SAESum of the absolute errors2.352
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Oatly Group observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Oatly Group AB observations.

Predictive Modules for Oatly Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oatly Group AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oatly Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.061.135.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.535.90
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
2.502.753.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Oatly Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Oatly Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Oatly Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Oatly Group AB.

Other Forecasting Options for Oatly Group

For every potential investor in Oatly, whether a beginner or expert, Oatly Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oatly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oatly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oatly Group's price trends.

Oatly Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oatly Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oatly Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oatly Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Oatly Group AB Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Oatly Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Oatly Group's current price.

Oatly Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oatly Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oatly Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oatly Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oatly Group AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Oatly Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Oatly Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oatly Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oatly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Oatly Group AB offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Oatly Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Oatly Group Ab Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Oatly Group Ab Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oatly Group to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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When running Oatly Group's price analysis, check to measure Oatly Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oatly Group is operating at the current time. Most of Oatly Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oatly Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oatly Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oatly Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Oatly Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oatly Group. If investors know Oatly will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Oatly Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.70)
Revenue Per Share
1.32
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.046
Return On Assets
(0.13)
Return On Equity
(0.74)
The market value of Oatly Group AB is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Oatly that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Oatly Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Oatly Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Oatly Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Oatly Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oatly Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oatly Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oatly Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.