Ovintiv Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

OVV Stock  USD 51.36  0.16  0.31%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ovintiv on the next trading day is expected to be 51.36 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.56  and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.99. Ovintiv Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ovintiv stock prices and determine the direction of Ovintiv's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ovintiv's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Ovintiv's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ovintiv's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ovintiv fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ovintiv to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Ovintiv Stock please use our How to Invest in Ovintiv guide.
  
At this time, Ovintiv's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to climb to 13.05 in 2024, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.48 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to climb to about 4.4 B in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 202.8 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Ovintiv Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ovintiv's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ovintiv's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ovintiv stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ovintiv's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ovintiv's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ovintiv is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ovintiv. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Ovintiv cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ovintiv's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ovintiv's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Ovintiv simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Ovintiv are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Ovintiv prices get older.

Ovintiv Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ovintiv on the next trading day is expected to be 51.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.99.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ovintiv Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ovintiv's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ovintiv Stock Forecast Pattern

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Ovintiv Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ovintiv's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ovintiv's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.75 and 52.97, respectively. We have considered Ovintiv's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
51.36
51.36
Expected Value
52.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ovintiv stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ovintiv stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.4796
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1261
MADMean absolute deviation0.5572
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0123
SAESum of the absolute errors33.99
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Ovintiv forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Ovintiv observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Ovintiv

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ovintiv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ovintiv's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
49.7151.3252.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
48.2849.8951.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
50.9951.4351.86
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
53.4258.7065.16
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ovintiv. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ovintiv's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ovintiv's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ovintiv.

Other Forecasting Options for Ovintiv

For every potential investor in Ovintiv, whether a beginner or expert, Ovintiv's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ovintiv Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ovintiv. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ovintiv's price trends.

Ovintiv Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ovintiv stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ovintiv could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ovintiv by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ovintiv Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ovintiv's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ovintiv's current price.

Ovintiv Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ovintiv stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ovintiv shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ovintiv stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ovintiv entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ovintiv Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ovintiv's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ovintiv's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ovintiv stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Ovintiv is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ovintiv's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ovintiv's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Ovintiv Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ovintiv to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Ovintiv Stock please use our How to Invest in Ovintiv guide.
You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

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Is Ovintiv's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ovintiv. If investors know Ovintiv will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ovintiv listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.41)
Dividend Share
1.15
Earnings Share
7.9
Revenue Per Share
41.02
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
The market value of Ovintiv is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ovintiv that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ovintiv's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ovintiv's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ovintiv's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ovintiv's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ovintiv's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ovintiv is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ovintiv's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.