Paramount Global Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PARA Stock | USD 12.68 0.06 0.47% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Paramount Global Class on the next trading day is expected to be 14.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.15. Paramount Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Paramount Global stock prices and determine the direction of Paramount Global Class's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Paramount Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Paramount Global's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Paramount Global's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Paramount Global fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paramount Global to cross-verify your projections. Paramount |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-26 Paramount Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Paramount Global's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Paramount Global's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Paramount Global stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Paramount Global's open interest, investors have to compare it to Paramount Global's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Paramount Global is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Paramount. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Paramount Global cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Paramount Global's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Paramount Global's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Paramount Global is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Paramount Global Class value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Paramount Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Paramount Global Class on the next trading day is expected to be 14.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Paramount Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Paramount Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Paramount Global Stock Forecast Pattern
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Paramount Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Paramount Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Paramount Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.67 and 18.53, respectively. We have considered Paramount Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Paramount Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Paramount Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4481 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3572 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0299 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.1455 |
Predictive Modules for Paramount Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Paramount Global Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Paramount Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Paramount Global
For every potential investor in Paramount, whether a beginner or expert, Paramount Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Paramount Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Paramount. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Paramount Global's price trends.Paramount Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Paramount Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Paramount Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Paramount Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Paramount Global Class Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Paramount Global's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Paramount Global's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Paramount Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Paramount Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Paramount Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Paramount Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Paramount Global Class entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 307720.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.15) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.63 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.045 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.39 |
Paramount Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Paramount Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Paramount Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting paramount stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.35 | |||
| Variance | 18.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Paramount Global to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Paramount Stock analysis
When running Paramount Global's price analysis, check to measure Paramount Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Paramount Global is operating at the current time. Most of Paramount Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Paramount Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Paramount Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Paramount Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Paramount Global's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Paramount Global. If investors know Paramount will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Paramount Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 79.876 | Dividend Share 0.39 | Earnings Share (2.06) | Revenue Per Share 45.479 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of Paramount Global Class is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Paramount that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Paramount Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Paramount Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Paramount Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Paramount Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Paramount Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Paramount Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Paramount Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.