Par Pacific Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
PARR Stock | USD 32.69 0.06 0.18% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Par Pacific Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 31.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.93. Par Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Par Pacific stock prices and determine the direction of Par Pacific Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Par Pacific's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Par Pacific's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Par Pacific's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Par Pacific fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Par Pacific to cross-verify your projections. Par |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Par Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Par Pacific's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Par Pacific's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Par Pacific stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Par Pacific's open interest, investors have to compare it to Par Pacific's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Par Pacific is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Par. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Par Pacific cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Par Pacific's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Par Pacific's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Par Pacific is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Par Pacific Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Par Pacific Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Par Pacific Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 31.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08, mean absolute percentage error of 1.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Par Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Par Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Par Pacific Stock Forecast Pattern
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Par Pacific Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Par Pacific's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Par Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.58 and 33.70, respectively. We have considered Par Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Par Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Par Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6079 |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0808 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0293 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 65.9312 |
Predictive Modules for Par Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Par Pacific Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Par Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Par Pacific
For every potential investor in Par, whether a beginner or expert, Par Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Par Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Par. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Par Pacific's price trends.Par Pacific Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Par Pacific stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Par Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Par Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Par Pacific Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Par Pacific's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Par Pacific's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Par Pacific Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Par Pacific stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Par Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Par Pacific stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Par Pacific Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Accumulation Distribution | 9827.18 | |||
Daily Balance Of Power | (0.12) | |||
Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
Day Median Price | 32.66 | |||
Day Typical Price | 32.67 | |||
Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) | |||
Relative Strength Index | 39.26 |
Par Pacific Risk Indicators
The analysis of Par Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Par Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting par stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 1.9 | |||
Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
Variance | 6.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Par Pacific Investors Sentiment
The influence of Par Pacific's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Par. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Par Pacific's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Par. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Par can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Par Pacific Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Par Pacific's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Par Pacific's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Par Pacific's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Par Pacific.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Par Pacific in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Par Pacific's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Par Pacific options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Par Pacific to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Complementary Tools for Par Stock analysis
When running Par Pacific's price analysis, check to measure Par Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Par Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of Par Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Par Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Par Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Par Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Par Pacific's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Par Pacific. If investors know Par will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Par Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.408 | Earnings Share 11.94 | Revenue Per Share 137.119 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.207 | Return On Assets 0.12 |
The market value of Par Pacific Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Par that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Par Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Par Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Par Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Par Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Par Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Par Pacific is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Par Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.