Petroleo Brasileiro Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| PBR Stock | USD 15.79 0.07 0.45% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras on the next trading day is expected to be 15.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.83. Petroleo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Petroleo Brasileiro stock prices and determine the direction of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Petroleo Brasileiro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Petroleo Brasileiro's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Petroleo Brasileiro's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Petroleo Brasileiro fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Petroleo Brasileiro to cross-verify your projections. Petroleo |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Petroleo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Petroleo Brasileiro's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Petroleo Brasileiro's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Petroleo Brasileiro stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Petroleo Brasileiro's open interest, investors have to compare it to Petroleo Brasileiro's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Petroleo Brasileiro is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Petroleo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Petroleo Brasileiro cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Petroleo Brasileiro's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Petroleo Brasileiro's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Petroleo Brasileiro is based on an artificially constructed time series of Petroleo Brasileiro daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Petroleo Brasileiro 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras on the next trading day is expected to be 15.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Petroleo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Petroleo Brasileiro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Petroleo Brasileiro Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Petroleo Brasileiro | Petroleo Brasileiro Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Petroleo Brasileiro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Petroleo Brasileiro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Petroleo Brasileiro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.59 and 18.03, respectively. We have considered Petroleo Brasileiro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Petroleo Brasileiro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Petroleo Brasileiro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 104.2845 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0554 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4598 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0291 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.83 |
Predictive Modules for Petroleo Brasileiro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Petroleo Brasileiro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Petroleo Brasileiro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Petroleo Brasileiro
For every potential investor in Petroleo, whether a beginner or expert, Petroleo Brasileiro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Petroleo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Petroleo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Petroleo Brasileiro's price trends.Petroleo Brasileiro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Petroleo Brasileiro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Petroleo Brasileiro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Petroleo Brasileiro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Petroleo Brasileiro Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Petroleo Brasileiro's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Petroleo Brasileiro's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Petroleo Brasileiro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Petroleo Brasileiro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Petroleo Brasileiro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Petroleo Brasileiro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 432515.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2414 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.71 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.15 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.07 |
Petroleo Brasileiro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Petroleo Brasileiro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Petroleo Brasileiro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting petroleo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.74 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Petroleo Brasileiro Investors Sentiment
The influence of Petroleo Brasileiro's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Petroleo. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Petroleo Brasileiro's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Petroleo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Petroleo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Petroleo Brasileiro's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Petroleo Brasileiro's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Petroleo Brasileiro's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Petroleo Brasileiro.
Petroleo Brasileiro Implied Volatility | 42.08 |
Petroleo Brasileiro's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Petroleo Brasileiro's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Petroleo Brasileiro stock will not fluctuate a lot when Petroleo Brasileiro's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Petroleo Brasileiro in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Petroleo Brasileiro's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Petroleo Brasileiro options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Petroleo Brasileiro to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Petroleo Brasileiro information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Petroleo Brasileiro's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Petroleo Stock analysis
When running Petroleo Brasileiro's price analysis, check to measure Petroleo Brasileiro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Petroleo Brasileiro is operating at the current time. Most of Petroleo Brasileiro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Petroleo Brasileiro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Petroleo Brasileiro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Petroleo Brasileiro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Petroleo Brasileiro's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Petroleo Brasileiro. If investors know Petroleo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Petroleo Brasileiro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Dividend Share 6.268 | Earnings Share 3.66 | Revenue Per Share 78.634 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
The market value of Petroleo Brasileiro is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Petroleo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Petroleo Brasileiro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Petroleo Brasileiro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Petroleo Brasileiro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Petroleo Brasileiro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Petroleo Brasileiro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Petroleo Brasileiro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Petroleo Brasileiro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.