Patterson Companies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PDCO Stock  USD 21.99  0.77  3.63%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Patterson Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 22.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.83. Patterson Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Patterson Companies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Patterson Companies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Patterson Companies fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 7th of November 2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to 6.63. Also, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 7.65. As of the 7th of November 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 94.8 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop about 114.1 M.

Patterson Companies Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Patterson Companies' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1991-04-30
Previous Quarter
114.5 M
Current Value
148.1 M
Quarterly Volatility
138.8 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Patterson Companies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Patterson Companies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Patterson Companies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Patterson Companies on the next trading day is expected to be 22.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Patterson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Patterson Companies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Patterson Companies Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Patterson CompaniesPatterson Companies Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Patterson Companies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Patterson Companies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Patterson Companies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.11 and 24.68, respectively. We have considered Patterson Companies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.99
22.40
Expected Value
24.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Patterson Companies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Patterson Companies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.2268
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5618
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.026
SAESum of the absolute errors34.8297
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Patterson Companies. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Patterson Companies. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Patterson Companies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Patterson Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Patterson Companies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.7922.0324.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.7925.3527.59
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.7821.6524.52
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
31.9535.1138.97
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Patterson Companies

For every potential investor in Patterson, whether a beginner or expert, Patterson Companies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Patterson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Patterson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Patterson Companies' price trends.

Patterson Companies Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Patterson Companies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Patterson Companies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Patterson Companies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Patterson Companies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Patterson Companies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Patterson Companies' current price.

Patterson Companies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Patterson Companies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Patterson Companies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Patterson Companies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Patterson Companies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Patterson Companies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Patterson Companies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Patterson Companies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting patterson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Patterson Companies

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Patterson Companies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Patterson Companies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Patterson Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Patterson Companies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Patterson Companies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Patterson Companies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Patterson Companies to buy it.
The correlation of Patterson Companies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Patterson Companies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Patterson Companies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Patterson Companies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Patterson Companies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Patterson Companies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Patterson Companies Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Patterson Companies Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Patterson Companies to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Patterson Stock, please use our How to Invest in Patterson Companies guide.
You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Patterson Companies. If investors know Patterson will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Patterson Companies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.53)
Dividend Share
1.04
Earnings Share
1.87
Revenue Per Share
71.704
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
The market value of Patterson Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Patterson that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Patterson Companies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Patterson Companies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Patterson Companies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Patterson Companies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Patterson Companies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Patterson Companies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Patterson Companies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.