PepsiCo Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

PEP Stock  USD 173.57  0.84  0.49%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of PepsiCo on the next trading day is expected to be 167.85 with a mean absolute deviation of  3.23  and the sum of the absolute errors of 135.81. PepsiCo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PepsiCo stock prices and determine the direction of PepsiCo's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PepsiCo's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although PepsiCo's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of PepsiCo's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of PepsiCo fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PepsiCo to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in PepsiCo Stock, please use our How to Invest in PepsiCo guide.
  
At this time, PepsiCo's Inventory Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 5.10, while Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 2.68. . As of 03/28/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 1.3 B. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 6.4 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 PepsiCo Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast PepsiCo's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in PepsiCo's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for PepsiCo stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current PepsiCo's open interest, investors have to compare it to PepsiCo's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of PepsiCo is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in PepsiCo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in PepsiCo cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the PepsiCo's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets PepsiCo's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for PepsiCo is based on a synthetically constructed PepsiCodaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

PepsiCo 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of PepsiCo on the next trading day is expected to be 167.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.23, mean absolute percentage error of 14.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 135.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PepsiCo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PepsiCo's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PepsiCo Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PepsiCoPepsiCo Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

PepsiCo Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PepsiCo's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PepsiCo's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 166.79 and 168.92, respectively. We have considered PepsiCo's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
173.57
166.79
Downside
167.85
Expected Value
168.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PepsiCo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PepsiCo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria85.8835
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.7056
MADMean absolute deviation3.2336
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0191
SAESum of the absolute errors135.8115
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. PepsiCo 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for PepsiCo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PepsiCo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PepsiCo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
172.52173.59174.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
166.03167.10190.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
172.11172.97173.83
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
161.96177.98197.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PepsiCo. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PepsiCo's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PepsiCo's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PepsiCo.

Other Forecasting Options for PepsiCo

For every potential investor in PepsiCo, whether a beginner or expert, PepsiCo's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PepsiCo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PepsiCo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PepsiCo's price trends.

PepsiCo Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PepsiCo stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PepsiCo could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PepsiCo by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PepsiCo Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PepsiCo's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PepsiCo's current price.

PepsiCo Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PepsiCo stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PepsiCo shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PepsiCo stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PepsiCo entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PepsiCo Risk Indicators

The analysis of PepsiCo's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PepsiCo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pepsico stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether PepsiCo is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if PepsiCo Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Pepsico Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Pepsico Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PepsiCo to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in PepsiCo Stock, please use our How to Invest in PepsiCo guide.
Note that the PepsiCo information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other PepsiCo's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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Is PepsiCo's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PepsiCo. If investors know PepsiCo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PepsiCo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.521
Dividend Share
4.945
Earnings Share
6.57
Revenue Per Share
66.476
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
The market value of PepsiCo is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PepsiCo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PepsiCo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PepsiCo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PepsiCo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PepsiCo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PepsiCo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PepsiCo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PepsiCo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.