PetMed Express Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

PETS Stock  USD 4.79  0.05  1.03%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PetMed Express on the next trading day is expected to be 4.23 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.21  and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.58. PetMed Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PetMed Express stock prices and determine the direction of PetMed Express's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PetMed Express' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PetMed Express to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy PetMed Stock please use our How to Invest in PetMed Express guide.
  
Most investors in PetMed Express cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the PetMed Express' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets PetMed Express' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through PetMed Express price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

PetMed Express Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of PetMed Express on the next trading day is expected to be 4.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.58.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PetMed Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PetMed Express' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PetMed Express Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest PetMed ExpressPetMed Express Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

PetMed Express Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PetMed Express' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PetMed Express' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.03 and 6.43, respectively. We have considered PetMed Express' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.79
4.23
Expected Value
6.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PetMed Express stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PetMed Express stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4033
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2063
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0374
SAESum of the absolute errors12.5831
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as PetMed Express historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for PetMed Express

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PetMed Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PetMed Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.594.796.99
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.265.467.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PetMed Express. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PetMed Express' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PetMed Express' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PetMed Express.

Other Forecasting Options for PetMed Express

For every potential investor in PetMed, whether a beginner or expert, PetMed Express' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PetMed Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PetMed. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PetMed Express' price trends.

PetMed Express Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PetMed Express stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PetMed Express could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PetMed Express by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PetMed Express Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PetMed Express' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PetMed Express' current price.

PetMed Express Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PetMed Express stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PetMed Express shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PetMed Express stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PetMed Express entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PetMed Express Risk Indicators

The analysis of PetMed Express' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PetMed Express' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting petmed stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as PetMed Express using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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When determining whether PetMed Express is a strong investment it is important to analyze PetMed Express' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact PetMed Express' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding PetMed Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PetMed Express to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy PetMed Stock please use our How to Invest in PetMed Express guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

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When running PetMed Express' price analysis, check to measure PetMed Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PetMed Express is operating at the current time. Most of PetMed Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PetMed Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PetMed Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PetMed Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is PetMed Express' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PetMed Express. If investors know PetMed will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PetMed Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of PetMed Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PetMed that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PetMed Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PetMed Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PetMed Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PetMed Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PetMed Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PetMed Express is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PetMed Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.