Procter Gamble Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

PG Stock  USD 162.25  0.36  0.22%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Procter Gamble on the next trading day is expected to be 161.67 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.68  and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.70. Procter Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Procter Gamble stock prices and determine the direction of Procter Gamble's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Procter Gamble's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Procter Gamble's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Procter Gamble's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Procter Gamble fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Procter Gamble to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Procter Stock please use our How to Invest in Procter Gamble guide.
  
At this time, Procter Gamble's Payables Turnover is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The Procter Gamble's current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.99, while Inventory Turnover is projected to decrease to 4.72. . The Procter Gamble's current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 2.3 B, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 10.6 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Procter Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Procter Gamble's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Procter Gamble's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Procter Gamble stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Procter Gamble's open interest, investors have to compare it to Procter Gamble's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Procter Gamble is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Procter. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Procter Gamble cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Procter Gamble's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Procter Gamble's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Procter Gamble is based on an artificially constructed time series of Procter Gamble daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Procter Gamble 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Procter Gamble on the next trading day is expected to be 161.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.68, mean absolute percentage error of 5.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Procter Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Procter Gamble's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Procter Gamble Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Procter GambleProcter Gamble Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Procter Gamble Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Procter Gamble's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Procter Gamble's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 160.87 and 162.47, respectively. We have considered Procter Gamble's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
162.25
160.87
Downside
161.67
Expected Value
162.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Procter Gamble stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Procter Gamble stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria106.8958
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.1211
MADMean absolute deviation1.6796
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0107
SAESum of the absolute errors90.6975
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Procter Gamble 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Procter Gamble

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Procter Gamble. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Procter Gamble's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
161.43162.25163.07
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
146.03180.58181.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
158.54160.82163.09
Details
27 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
141.38155.36172.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Procter Gamble. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Procter Gamble's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Procter Gamble's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Procter Gamble.

Other Forecasting Options for Procter Gamble

For every potential investor in Procter, whether a beginner or expert, Procter Gamble's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Procter Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Procter. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Procter Gamble's price trends.

Procter Gamble Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Procter Gamble stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Procter Gamble could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Procter Gamble by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Procter Gamble Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Procter Gamble's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Procter Gamble's current price.

Procter Gamble Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Procter Gamble stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Procter Gamble shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Procter Gamble stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Procter Gamble entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Procter Gamble Risk Indicators

The analysis of Procter Gamble's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Procter Gamble's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting procter stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Procter Gamble Investors Sentiment

The influence of Procter Gamble's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Procter. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Procter Gamble's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Procter. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Procter can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Procter Gamble. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Procter Gamble's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Procter Gamble's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Procter Gamble's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Procter Gamble.

Procter Gamble Implied Volatility

    
  11.71  
Procter Gamble's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Procter Gamble stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Procter Gamble's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Procter Gamble stock will not fluctuate a lot when Procter Gamble's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Procter Gamble in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Procter Gamble's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Procter Gamble options trading.

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When determining whether Procter Gamble is a strong investment it is important to analyze Procter Gamble's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Procter Gamble's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Procter Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Procter Gamble to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Procter Stock please use our How to Invest in Procter Gamble guide.
Note that the Procter Gamble information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Procter Gamble's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.

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When running Procter Gamble's price analysis, check to measure Procter Gamble's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Procter Gamble is operating at the current time. Most of Procter Gamble's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Procter Gamble's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Procter Gamble's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Procter Gamble to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Procter Gamble's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Procter Gamble. If investors know Procter will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Procter Gamble listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.11)
Dividend Share
3.735
Earnings Share
5.97
Revenue Per Share
35.567
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.032
The market value of Procter Gamble is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Procter that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Procter Gamble's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Procter Gamble's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Procter Gamble's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Procter Gamble's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Procter Gamble's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Procter Gamble is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Procter Gamble's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.