Pagaya Technologies Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| PGY Stock | USD 9.41 0.17 1.84% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Pagaya Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 9.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.31. Pagaya Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pagaya Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Pagaya Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pagaya Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Pagaya Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Pagaya Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Pagaya Technologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pagaya Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Pagaya |
Most investors in Pagaya Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Pagaya Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Pagaya Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Pagaya Technologies is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. Pagaya Technologies Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Pagaya Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 9.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 1.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pagaya Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pagaya Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pagaya Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pagaya Technologies | Pagaya Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Pagaya Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pagaya Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pagaya Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.90 and 15.75, respectively. We have considered Pagaya Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pagaya Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pagaya Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5112 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1476 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.751 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0589 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 44.31 |
Predictive Modules for Pagaya Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pagaya Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Pagaya Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Pagaya Technologies
For every potential investor in Pagaya, whether a beginner or expert, Pagaya Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pagaya Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pagaya. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pagaya Technologies' price trends.Pagaya Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pagaya Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pagaya Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pagaya Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pagaya Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pagaya Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pagaya Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pagaya Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pagaya Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pagaya Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pagaya Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pagaya Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pagaya Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pagaya Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pagaya Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pagaya stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.36 | |||
| Variance | 40.45 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Pagaya Technologies using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pagaya Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Pagaya Stock please use our How to Invest in Pagaya Technologies guide.Note that the Pagaya Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Pagaya Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Complementary Tools for Pagaya Stock analysis
When running Pagaya Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Pagaya Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pagaya Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Pagaya Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pagaya Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pagaya Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pagaya Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets | |
| FinTech Suite Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| Bond Analysis Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios. | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum | |
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital |
Is Pagaya Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pagaya Technologies. If investors know Pagaya will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pagaya Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.14) | Revenue Per Share 13.525 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.13 | Return On Assets (0.01) | Return On Equity (0.26) |
The market value of Pagaya Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pagaya that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pagaya Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pagaya Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pagaya Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pagaya Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pagaya Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pagaya Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pagaya Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.