Puhui Wealth Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

PHCF -  USA Stock  

USD 3.75  0.08  2.09%

Puhui Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Puhui Wealth historical stock prices and determine the direction of Puhui Wealth Investment's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Puhui Wealth historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Puhui Wealth to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in Puhui Wealth cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Puhui Wealth's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Puhui Wealth's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Puhui Wealth works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Puhui Wealth Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Puhui Wealth Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 3.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.30. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Puhui Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Puhui Wealth's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Puhui Wealth Stock Forecast Pattern

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Puhui Wealth Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Puhui Wealth's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Puhui Wealth's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0375 and 10.27, respectively. We have considered Puhui Wealth's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.75
1st of August 2021
0.0375
Downside
3.76
Expected Value
10.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Puhui Wealth stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Puhui Wealth stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0389
MADMean absolute deviation0.1915
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0488
SAESum of the absolute errors11.2963
When Puhui Wealth Investment prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Puhui Wealth Investment trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Puhui Wealth observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Puhui Wealth

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Puhui Wealth Investment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Puhui Wealth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Puhui Wealth in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.193.7210.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.173.349.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Puhui Wealth. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Puhui Wealth's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Puhui Wealth's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Puhui Wealth Investment.

Other Forecasting Options for Puhui Wealth

For every potential investor in Puhui, whether a beginner or expert, Puhui Wealth's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Puhui Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Puhui. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Puhui Wealth's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Puhui Wealth stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Puhui Wealth could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Puhui Wealth by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Puhui Wealth Investment Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Puhui Wealth's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Puhui Wealth's current price.

Puhui Wealth Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Puhui Wealth stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Puhui Wealth shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Puhui Wealth stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Puhui Wealth Investment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Puhui Wealth Risk Indicators

The analysis of Puhui Wealth's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Puhui Wealth's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Puhui Wealth stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Puhui Wealth Investors Sentiment

The influence of Puhui Wealth's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Puhui. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - PHCF

Puhui Wealth Investment Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are evenly split in their perspective on investing in Puhui Wealth Investment. What is your perspective on investing in Puhui Wealth Investment? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Puhui Wealth to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Puhui Wealth Investment information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Puhui Wealth's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

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The market value of Puhui Wealth Investment is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Puhui that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Puhui Wealth's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Puhui Wealth's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Puhui Wealth's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Puhui Wealth Investment underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Puhui Wealth's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Puhui Wealth value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Puhui Wealth's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.