International Emerging Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

PIEJX Fund  USD 24.38  0.04  0.16%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of International Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 24.48 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.12  and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.25. International Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast International Emerging stock prices and determine the direction of International Emerging Markets's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of International Emerging's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Emerging to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in International Emerging cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the International Emerging's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets International Emerging's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for International Emerging is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of International Emerging Markets value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

International Emerging Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of International Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 24.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict International Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that International Emerging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

International Emerging Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest International EmergingInternational Emerging Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

International Emerging Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting International Emerging's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. International Emerging's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.77 and 25.18, respectively. We have considered International Emerging's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.38
24.48
Expected Value
25.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of International Emerging mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent International Emerging mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3634
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1189
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0051
SAESum of the absolute errors7.2516
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of International Emerging Markets. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict International Emerging. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for International Emerging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Emerging. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of International Emerging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.6724.3825.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.4224.1324.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
24.3624.3924.43
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as International Emerging. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against International Emerging's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, International Emerging's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in International Emerging.

Other Forecasting Options for International Emerging

For every potential investor in International, whether a beginner or expert, International Emerging's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. International Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in International. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying International Emerging's price trends.

International Emerging Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with International Emerging mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of International Emerging could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing International Emerging by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

International Emerging Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of International Emerging's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of International Emerging's current price.

International Emerging Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how International Emerging mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading International Emerging shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying International Emerging mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify International Emerging Markets entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

International Emerging Risk Indicators

The analysis of International Emerging's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in International Emerging's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting international mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as International Emerging using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Emerging to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between International Emerging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if International Emerging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, International Emerging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.