Plumb Balanced Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

PLABX Fund  USD 37.92  0.11  0.29%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Plumb Balanced on the next trading day is expected to be 37.96 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.20  and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.56. Plumb Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Plumb Balanced stock prices and determine the direction of Plumb Balanced's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Plumb Balanced's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plumb Balanced to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Plumb Balanced cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Plumb Balanced's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Plumb Balanced's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Plumb Balanced works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Plumb Balanced Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Plumb Balanced on the next trading day is expected to be 37.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Plumb Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Plumb Balanced's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Plumb Balanced Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Plumb BalancedPlumb Balanced Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Plumb Balanced Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Plumb Balanced's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Plumb Balanced's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.33 and 38.60, respectively. We have considered Plumb Balanced's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.92
37.96
Expected Value
38.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Plumb Balanced mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Plumb Balanced mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0356
MADMean absolute deviation0.1959
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0054
SAESum of the absolute errors11.5595
When Plumb Balanced prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Plumb Balanced trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Plumb Balanced observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Plumb Balanced

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plumb Balanced. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Plumb Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
37.2837.9238.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.1338.8439.48
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Plumb Balanced. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Plumb Balanced's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Plumb Balanced's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Plumb Balanced.

Other Forecasting Options for Plumb Balanced

For every potential investor in Plumb, whether a beginner or expert, Plumb Balanced's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Plumb Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Plumb. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Plumb Balanced's price trends.

Plumb Balanced Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Plumb Balanced mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Plumb Balanced could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Plumb Balanced by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Plumb Balanced Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Plumb Balanced's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Plumb Balanced's current price.

Plumb Balanced Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Plumb Balanced mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Plumb Balanced shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Plumb Balanced mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Plumb Balanced entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Plumb Balanced Risk Indicators

The analysis of Plumb Balanced's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Plumb Balanced's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting plumb mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Plumb Balanced using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Build Optimal Portfolios

Align your risk with return expectations

Fix your portfolio
By capturing your risk tolerance and investment horizon Macroaxis technology of instant portfolio optimization will compute exactly how much risk is acceptable for your desired return expectations
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plumb Balanced to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Plumb Balanced information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Plumb Balanced's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Complementary Tools for Plumb Mutual Fund analysis

When running Plumb Balanced's price analysis, check to measure Plumb Balanced's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Plumb Balanced is operating at the current time. Most of Plumb Balanced's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Plumb Balanced's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Plumb Balanced's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Plumb Balanced to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
FinTech Suite
Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Bonds Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Odds Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Please note, there is a significant difference between Plumb Balanced's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Plumb Balanced is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Plumb Balanced's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.