Plumb Balanced Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

PLBBX Fund  USD 37.96  0.08  0.21%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Plumb Balanced Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 37.94 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.24  and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.78. Plumb Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Plumb Balanced stock prices and determine the direction of Plumb Balanced Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Plumb Balanced's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plumb Balanced to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Plumb Balanced cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Plumb Balanced's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Plumb Balanced's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Plumb Balanced Fund is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Plumb Balanced 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Plumb Balanced Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 37.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Plumb Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Plumb Balanced's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Plumb Balanced Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Plumb Balanced Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Plumb Balanced's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Plumb Balanced's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.30 and 38.57, respectively. We have considered Plumb Balanced's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.96
37.94
Expected Value
38.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Plumb Balanced mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Plumb Balanced mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.2723
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1853
MADMean absolute deviation0.2417
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0067
SAESum of the absolute errors13.7775
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Plumb Balanced. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Plumb Balanced Fund and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Plumb Balanced

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plumb Balanced Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Plumb Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
37.3237.9638.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
36.7937.4338.07
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
37.8637.9338.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Plumb Balanced. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Plumb Balanced's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Plumb Balanced's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Plumb Balanced Fund.

Other Forecasting Options for Plumb Balanced

For every potential investor in Plumb, whether a beginner or expert, Plumb Balanced's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Plumb Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Plumb. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Plumb Balanced's price trends.

Plumb Balanced Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Plumb Balanced mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Plumb Balanced could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Plumb Balanced by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Plumb Balanced Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Plumb Balanced's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Plumb Balanced's current price.

Plumb Balanced Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Plumb Balanced mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Plumb Balanced shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Plumb Balanced mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Plumb Balanced Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Plumb Balanced Risk Indicators

The analysis of Plumb Balanced's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Plumb Balanced's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting plumb mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Plumb Balanced in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Plumb Balanced's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Plumb Balanced options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plumb Balanced to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Plumb Balanced Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Plumb Balanced's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Plumb Balanced's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Plumb Balanced is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Plumb Balanced's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.