Plumb Balanced Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PLBBX
 Fund
  

USD 32.58  0.06  0.18%   

Plumb Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Plumb Balanced historical stock prices and determine the direction of Plumb Balanced's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Plumb Balanced historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plumb Balanced to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Plumb Balanced cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Plumb Balanced's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Plumb Balanced's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Plumb Balanced - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Plumb Balanced prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Plumb Balanced price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Plumb Balanced.

Plumb Balanced Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Plumb Balanced on the next trading day is expected to be 32.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.98.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Plumb Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Plumb Balanced's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Plumb Balanced Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Plumb BalancedPlumb Balanced Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Plumb Balanced Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Plumb Balanced's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Plumb Balanced's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.22 and 34.07, respectively. We have considered Plumb Balanced's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 32.58
32.65
Expected Value
34.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Plumb Balanced mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Plumb Balanced mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0653
MADMean absolute deviation0.3387
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0111
SAESum of the absolute errors19.9825
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Plumb Balanced observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Plumb Balanced observations.

Predictive Modules for Plumb Balanced

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plumb Balanced. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Plumb Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Plumb Balanced in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.1032.5233.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
30.6032.0233.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
30.3431.8833.42
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Plumb Balanced. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Plumb Balanced's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Plumb Balanced's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Plumb Balanced.

Other Forecasting Options for Plumb Balanced

For every potential investor in Plumb, whether a beginner or expert, Plumb Balanced's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Plumb Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Plumb. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Plumb Balanced's price trends.

Plumb Balanced Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Plumb Balanced mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Plumb Balanced could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Plumb Balanced by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
CaterpillarAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone IncCVS CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel CorpMetlifeATT IncTarget Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Plumb Balanced Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Plumb Balanced's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Plumb Balanced's current price.

Plumb Balanced Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Plumb Balanced mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Plumb Balanced shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Plumb Balanced mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Plumb Balanced entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Plumb Balanced Risk Indicators

The analysis of Plumb Balanced's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Plumb Balanced's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Plumb Balanced stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Plumb Balanced Investors Sentiment

The influence of Plumb Balanced's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Plumb. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Plumb Balanced in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Plumb Balanced's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Plumb Balanced options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plumb Balanced to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Plumb Balanced information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Plumb Balanced's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Probability Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

Complementary Tools for Plumb Mutual Fund analysis

When running Plumb Balanced price analysis, check to measure Plumb Balanced's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Plumb Balanced is operating at the current time. Most of Plumb Balanced's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Plumb Balanced's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Plumb Balanced's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Plumb Balanced to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Plumb Balanced's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Plumb Balanced value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Plumb Balanced's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.