PNM Resources Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PNM Stock  USD 37.64  0.19  0.51%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PNM Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 38.36 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.40  and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.56. PNM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast PNM Resources stock prices and determine the direction of PNM Resources's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of PNM Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although PNM Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of PNM Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of PNM Resources fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PNM Resources to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in PNM Stock, please use our How to Invest in PNM Resources guide.
  
As of the 29th of March 2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.37, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 10.77. . As of the 29th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 78.4 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 113.9 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 PNM Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast PNM Resources' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in PNM Resources' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for PNM Resources stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current PNM Resources' open interest, investors have to compare it to PNM Resources' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of PNM Resources is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in PNM. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in PNM Resources cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the PNM Resources' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets PNM Resources' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for PNM Resources is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of PNM Resources value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

PNM Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PNM Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 38.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PNM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PNM Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PNM Resources Stock Forecast Pattern

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PNM Resources Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PNM Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PNM Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.91 and 39.80, respectively. We have considered PNM Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.64
38.36
Expected Value
39.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PNM Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PNM Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5465
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3961
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0107
SAESum of the absolute errors24.5578
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of PNM Resources. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict PNM Resources. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for PNM Resources

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PNM Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PNM Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.1637.6039.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.8844.0145.45
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.2050.7756.35
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.380.450.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PNM Resources. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PNM Resources' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PNM Resources' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PNM Resources.

Other Forecasting Options for PNM Resources

For every potential investor in PNM, whether a beginner or expert, PNM Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PNM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PNM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PNM Resources' price trends.

PNM Resources Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PNM Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PNM Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PNM Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PNM Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PNM Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PNM Resources' current price.

PNM Resources Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PNM Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PNM Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PNM Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PNM Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PNM Resources Risk Indicators

The analysis of PNM Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PNM Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pnm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as PNM Resources using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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When determining whether PNM Resources is a strong investment it is important to analyze PNM Resources' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact PNM Resources' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding PNM Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PNM Resources to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in PNM Stock, please use our How to Invest in PNM Resources guide.
You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

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Is PNM Resources' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of PNM Resources. If investors know PNM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about PNM Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.69)
Dividend Share
1.49
Earnings Share
1.02
Revenue Per Share
22.471
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.28)
The market value of PNM Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PNM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of PNM Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is PNM Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because PNM Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect PNM Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between PNM Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if PNM Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, PNM Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.