Party City Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| PRTYDelisted Stock | USD 0.06 0 9.54% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Party City Holdco on the next trading day is expected to be 0.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.40. Party Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Party City stock prices and determine the direction of Party City Holdco's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Party City's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate. Party |
Most investors in Party City cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Party City's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Party City's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Party City is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. Party City Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 19th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Party City Holdco on the next trading day is expected to be 0.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Party Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Party City's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Party City Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Party City stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Party City stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.7429 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0073 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0237 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1558 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.3959 |
Predictive Modules for Party City
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Party City Holdco. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Party City's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Party City Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Party City stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Party City could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Party City by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Party City Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Party City stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Party City shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Party City stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Party City Holdco entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Party City in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Party City's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Party City options trading.
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Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Other Consideration for investing in Party Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Party City Holdco check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Party City's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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