Patterson UTI Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PTEN Stock  USD 11.94  0.11  0.91%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Patterson UTI Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 12.02 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.23  and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.26. Patterson Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Patterson UTI stock prices and determine the direction of Patterson UTI Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Patterson UTI's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Patterson UTI's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Patterson UTI's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Patterson UTI fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Patterson UTI to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Patterson UTI's Payables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 29th of March 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 1.36, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 18.61. . As of the 29th of March 2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 146.2 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop about 153.1 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Patterson Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Patterson UTI's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Patterson UTI's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Patterson UTI stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Patterson UTI's open interest, investors have to compare it to Patterson UTI's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Patterson UTI is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Patterson. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Patterson UTI cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Patterson UTI's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Patterson UTI's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Patterson UTI is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Patterson UTI Energy value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Patterson UTI Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Patterson UTI Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 12.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Patterson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Patterson UTI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Patterson UTI Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Patterson UTIPatterson UTI Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Patterson UTI Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Patterson UTI's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Patterson UTI's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.35 and 14.69, respectively. We have considered Patterson UTI's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.94
12.02
Expected Value
14.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Patterson UTI stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Patterson UTI stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.6748
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.23
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.021
SAESum of the absolute errors14.2625
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Patterson UTI Energy. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Patterson UTI. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Patterson UTI

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Patterson-UTI Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Patterson UTI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.2911.9414.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.8011.4514.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.3211.7212.12
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.0918.7820.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Patterson UTI. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Patterson UTI's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Patterson UTI's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Patterson-UTI Energy.

Other Forecasting Options for Patterson UTI

For every potential investor in Patterson, whether a beginner or expert, Patterson UTI's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Patterson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Patterson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Patterson UTI's price trends.

Patterson UTI Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Patterson UTI stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Patterson UTI could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Patterson UTI by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Patterson-UTI Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Patterson UTI's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Patterson UTI's current price.

Patterson UTI Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Patterson UTI stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Patterson UTI shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Patterson UTI stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Patterson UTI Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Patterson UTI Risk Indicators

The analysis of Patterson UTI's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Patterson UTI's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting patterson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Patterson UTI Investors Sentiment

The influence of Patterson UTI's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Patterson. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Patterson UTI's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Patterson. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Patterson can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Patterson UTI Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Patterson UTI's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Patterson UTI's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Patterson UTI's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Patterson UTI.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Patterson UTI in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Patterson UTI's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Patterson UTI options trading.

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When determining whether Patterson-UTI Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Patterson UTI's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Patterson Uti Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Patterson Uti Energy Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Patterson UTI to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Patterson-UTI Energy information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Patterson UTI's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

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When running Patterson UTI's price analysis, check to measure Patterson UTI's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Patterson UTI is operating at the current time. Most of Patterson UTI's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Patterson UTI's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Patterson UTI's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Patterson UTI to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Patterson UTI's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Patterson UTI. If investors know Patterson will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Patterson UTI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.68)
Dividend Share
0.32
Earnings Share
0.87
Revenue Per Share
14.835
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.009
The market value of Patterson-UTI Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Patterson that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Patterson UTI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Patterson UTI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Patterson UTI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Patterson UTI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Patterson UTI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Patterson UTI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Patterson UTI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.