Virtus Newfleet Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PXCZX -  USA Fund  

USD 11.16  0.01  0.09%

Virtus Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Virtus Newfleet historical stock prices and determine the direction of Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Virtus Newfleet historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virtus Newfleet to cross-verify your projections.

Virtus Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Virtus Newfleet cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Virtus Newfleet's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Virtus Newfleet's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Virtus Newfleet - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Virtus Newfleet prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Virtus Newfleet price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Virtus Newfleet Tax-.

Virtus Newfleet Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt on the next trading day is expected to be 11.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.006536, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00010001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.39. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virtus Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virtus Newfleet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Virtus Newfleet Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Virtus Newfleet Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Virtus Newfleet's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virtus Newfleet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.06 and 11.24, respectively. We have considered Virtus Newfleet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.16
25th of January 2022
11.15
Expected Value
11.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virtus Newfleet mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virtus Newfleet mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.001
MADMean absolute deviation0.0065
MAPEMean absolute percentage error6.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors0.3856
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Virtus Newfleet observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt observations.

Predictive Modules for Virtus Newfleet

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virtus Newfleet Tax-. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virtus Newfleet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Virtus Newfleet in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.0711.1611.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11.1011.1911.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.1711.3111.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Virtus Newfleet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Virtus Newfleet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Virtus Newfleet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Virtus Newfleet Tax-.

Other Forecasting Options for Virtus Newfleet

For every potential investor in Virtus, whether a beginner or expert, Virtus Newfleet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virtus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virtus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virtus Newfleet's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virtus Newfleet mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virtus Newfleet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virtus Newfleet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Virtus Newfleet Tax- Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Virtus Newfleet's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Virtus Newfleet's current price.

Virtus Newfleet Risk Indicators

The analysis of Virtus Newfleet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virtus Newfleet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Virtus Newfleet stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Virtus Newfleet Investors Sentiment

The influence of Virtus Newfleet's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Virtus. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Virtus Newfleet in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Virtus Newfleet's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Virtus Newfleet options trading.

Current Sentiment - PXCZX

Virtus Newfleet Tax- Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are evenly split in their perspective on investing in Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt. What is your outlook on investing in Virtus Newfleet Tax-Exempt? Are you bullish or bearish?
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Please check Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virtus Newfleet to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Virtus Newfleet Tax- information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Virtus Newfleet's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Virtus Newfleet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Virtus Newfleet value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Virtus Newfleet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.