Qualcomm Incorporated Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| QCOM Stock | USD 164.32 4.26 2.53% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Qualcomm Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 165.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.30. Qualcomm Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Qualcomm Incorporated stock prices and determine the direction of Qualcomm Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated to cross-verify your projections. Qualcomm |
Most investors in Qualcomm Incorporated cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Qualcomm Incorporated's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Qualcomm Incorporated's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Qualcomm Incorporated simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Qualcomm Incorporated are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Qualcomm Incorporated prices get older. Qualcomm Incorporated Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Qualcomm Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 165.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.47, mean absolute percentage error of 9.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Qualcomm Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Qualcomm Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Qualcomm Incorporated Stock Forecast Pattern
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Qualcomm Incorporated Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Qualcomm Incorporated's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Qualcomm Incorporated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 163.19 and 167.06, respectively. We have considered Qualcomm Incorporated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Qualcomm Incorporated stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Qualcomm Incorporated stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4693 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2637 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.4717 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 148.3017 |
Predictive Modules for Qualcomm Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Qualcomm Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Qualcomm Incorporated's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Qualcomm Incorporated
For every potential investor in Qualcomm, whether a beginner or expert, Qualcomm Incorporated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Qualcomm Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Qualcomm. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Qualcomm Incorporated's price trends.Qualcomm Incorporated Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Qualcomm Incorporated stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Qualcomm Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Qualcomm Incorporated Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Qualcomm Incorporated's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Qualcomm Incorporated's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Qualcomm Incorporated Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Qualcomm Incorporated stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Qualcomm Incorporated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Qualcomm Incorporated stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Qualcomm Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 304873.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.66) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 166.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 166.09 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.79) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.26) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.78 |
Qualcomm Incorporated Risk Indicators
The analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Qualcomm Incorporated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting qualcomm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Qualcomm Incorporated in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Qualcomm Incorporated's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Qualcomm Incorporated options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Qualcomm Incorporated to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Qualcomm Stock, please use our How to Invest in Qualcomm Incorporated guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for Qualcomm Stock analysis
When running Qualcomm Incorporated's price analysis, check to measure Qualcomm Incorporated's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Qualcomm Incorporated is operating at the current time. Most of Qualcomm Incorporated's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Qualcomm Incorporated's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Qualcomm Incorporated's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Qualcomm Incorporated to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Qualcomm Incorporated's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Qualcomm Incorporated. If investors know Qualcomm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Qualcomm Incorporated listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Qualcomm Incorporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Qualcomm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Qualcomm Incorporated's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Qualcomm Incorporated's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Qualcomm Incorporated's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Qualcomm Incorporated's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Qualcomm Incorporated's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Qualcomm Incorporated is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Qualcomm Incorporated's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.