Reata Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| RETADelisted Stock | USD 172.36 0.02 0.01% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Reata Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 173.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 125.58. Reata Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Reata Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Reata Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Reata Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate. Reata |
Most investors in Reata Pharmaceuticals cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Reata Pharmaceuticals' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Reata Pharmaceuticals' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Reata Pharmaceuticals - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Reata Pharmaceuticals prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Reata Pharmaceuticals price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Reata Pharmaceuticals. Reata Pharmaceuticals Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Reata Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 173.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.13, mean absolute percentage error of 58.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 125.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Reata Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Reata Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Reata Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Reata Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Reata Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2576 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1285 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0145 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 125.58 |
Predictive Modules for Reata Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Reata Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Reata Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Reata Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Reata Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Reata Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Reata Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Reata Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Reata Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Reata Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Reata Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Reata Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Reata Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Reata Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Reata Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting reata stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3755 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.81 | |||
| Variance | 46.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.141 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate. You can also try the AI Investment Finder module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Other Consideration for investing in Reata Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Reata Pharmaceuticals check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Reata Pharmaceuticals' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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