American Funds Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

RFNBX Fund  USD 78.94  0.46  0.59%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of American Funds Fundamental on the next trading day is expected to be 79.16 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.35  and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.48. American Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Funds stock prices and determine the direction of American Funds Fundamental's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Funds' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Funds to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in American Funds cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Funds' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Funds' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through American Funds price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

American Funds Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of American Funds Fundamental on the next trading day is expected to be 79.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Funds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Funds Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest American FundsAmerican Funds Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

American Funds Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Funds' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Funds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.43 and 79.88, respectively. We have considered American Funds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
78.94
79.16
Expected Value
79.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Funds mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Funds mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.5756
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3522
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0047
SAESum of the absolute errors21.4836
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as American Funds Fundamental historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for American Funds

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Funds Funda. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Funds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
77.7578.4879.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
74.7975.5286.33
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
78.3978.5378.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Funds. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Funds' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Funds' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Funds Funda.

Other Forecasting Options for American Funds

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Funds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Funds' price trends.

American Funds Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Funds mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Funds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Funds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Funds Funda Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Funds' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Funds' current price.

American Funds Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Funds mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Funds shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Funds mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify American Funds Fundamental entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

American Funds Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Funds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Funds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Funds in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Funds' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Funds options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Funds to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the American Funds Funda information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Funds' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.

Complementary Tools for American Mutual Fund analysis

When running American Funds' price analysis, check to measure American Funds' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Funds is operating at the current time. Most of American Funds' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Funds' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Funds' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Funds to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Portfolio Analyzer
Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
CEOs Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Sectors
List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Fundamental Analysis
View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Funds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Funds is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Funds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.