Rio Tinto OTC Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

RTNTF -  USA Stock  

USD 72.91  2.59  3.43%

RTNTF OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Rio Tinto historical stock prices and determine the direction of Rio Tinto's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Rio Tinto historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rio Tinto to cross-verify your projections.

RTNTF O TC Stock Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Rio Tinto cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Rio Tinto's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Rio Tinto's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Rio Tinto polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Rio Tinto as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Rio Tinto Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Rio Tinto on the next trading day is expected to be 74.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.40, mean absolute percentage error of 9.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 146.64. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RTNTF OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rio Tinto's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Rio Tinto OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

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Rio Tinto Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Rio Tinto's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rio Tinto's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 70.85 and 77.50, respectively. We have considered Rio Tinto's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
72.91
21st of October 2021
74.17
Expected Value
77.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rio Tinto otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rio Tinto otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.362
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.4039
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0292
SAESum of the absolute errors146.6354
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Rio Tinto historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Rio Tinto

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rio Tinto. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rio Tinto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Rio Tinto in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
69.6472.9176.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
63.0666.3380.20
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Rio Tinto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Rio Tinto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Rio Tinto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Rio Tinto.

Other Forecasting Options for Rio Tinto

For every potential investor in RTNTF, whether a beginner or expert, Rio Tinto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RTNTF OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RTNTF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rio Tinto's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rio Tinto otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rio Tinto could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rio Tinto by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Rio Tinto Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Rio Tinto's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Rio Tinto's current price.

Rio Tinto Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rio Tinto otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rio Tinto shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rio Tinto otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rio Tinto entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Rio Tinto Risk Indicators

The analysis of Rio Tinto's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rio Tinto's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Rio Tinto stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Rio Tinto Investors Sentiment

The influence of Rio Tinto's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in RTNTF. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - RTNTF

Rio Tinto Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are evenly split in their perspective on investing in Rio Tinto. What is your perspective on investing in Rio Tinto? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rio Tinto to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Rio Tinto information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Rio Tinto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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When running Rio Tinto price analysis, check to measure Rio Tinto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Rio Tinto is operating at the current time. Most of Rio Tinto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Rio Tinto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Rio Tinto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Rio Tinto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Rio Tinto is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RTNTF that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Rio Tinto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Rio Tinto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Rio Tinto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Rio Tinto underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Rio Tinto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Rio Tinto value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rio Tinto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.