Rexel SA Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Moving Average

RXEEY Stock  USD 27.03  0.19  0.70%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Rexel SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 27.12 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.36  and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.30. Rexel Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Rexel SA stock prices and determine the direction of Rexel SA ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Rexel SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rexel SA to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Rexel SA cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Rexel SA's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Rexel SA's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Rexel SA is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Rexel SA Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Rexel SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 27.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rexel Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rexel SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Rexel SA Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Rexel SARexel SA Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Rexel SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Rexel SA's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rexel SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.37 and 28.88, respectively. We have considered Rexel SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.03
27.12
Expected Value
28.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rexel SA pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rexel SA pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.8503
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -9.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.3611
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0136
SAESum of the absolute errors21.305
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Rexel SA ADR price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Rexel SA. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Rexel SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rexel SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rexel SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.2827.0328.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.0426.7928.54
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
25.0726.4627.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Rexel SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Rexel SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Rexel SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Rexel SA ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Rexel SA

For every potential investor in Rexel, whether a beginner or expert, Rexel SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rexel Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rexel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rexel SA's price trends.

Rexel SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rexel SA pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rexel SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rexel SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Rexel SA ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Rexel SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Rexel SA's current price.

Rexel SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rexel SA pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rexel SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rexel SA pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Rexel SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Rexel SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Rexel SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rexel SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rexel pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rexel SA to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Rexel SA ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Rexel SA's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

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When running Rexel SA's price analysis, check to measure Rexel SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Rexel SA is operating at the current time. Most of Rexel SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Rexel SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Rexel SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Rexel SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Rexel SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Rexel SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rexel SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.