Sage Therapeutic Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| SAGE Stock | USD 13.33 0.29 2.22% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Sage Therapeutic on the next trading day is expected to be 12.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.10. Sage Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sage Therapeutic stock prices and determine the direction of Sage Therapeutic's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sage Therapeutic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Sage Therapeutic's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Sage Therapeutic's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Sage Therapeutic fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sage Therapeutic to cross-verify your projections. Sage |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Sage Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sage Therapeutic's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sage Therapeutic's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sage Therapeutic stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sage Therapeutic's open interest, investors have to compare it to Sage Therapeutic's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sage Therapeutic is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sage. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Sage Therapeutic cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Sage Therapeutic's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Sage Therapeutic's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Sage Therapeutic polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Sage Therapeutic as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Sage Therapeutic Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 21st of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Sage Therapeutic on the next trading day is expected to be 12.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sage Therapeutic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sage Therapeutic Stock Forecast Pattern
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Sage Therapeutic Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sage Therapeutic's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sage Therapeutic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.72 and 16.25, respectively. We have considered Sage Therapeutic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sage Therapeutic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sage Therapeutic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1814 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4606 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0234 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.0964 |
Predictive Modules for Sage Therapeutic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sage Therapeutic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sage Therapeutic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Sage Therapeutic
For every potential investor in Sage, whether a beginner or expert, Sage Therapeutic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sage Therapeutic's price trends.View Sage Therapeutic Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sage Therapeutic Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sage Therapeutic's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sage Therapeutic's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sage Therapeutic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sage Therapeutic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sage Therapeutic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sage Therapeutic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sage Therapeutic entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sage Therapeutic Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sage Therapeutic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sage Therapeutic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.72 | |||
| Variance | 13.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Sage Therapeutic Investors Sentiment
The influence of Sage Therapeutic's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Sage. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Sage Therapeutic's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sage. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sage can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sage Therapeutic. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Sage Therapeutic's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Sage Therapeutic's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Sage Therapeutic's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Sage Therapeutic.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Sage Therapeutic in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Sage Therapeutic's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Sage Therapeutic options trading.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Sage Therapeutic is a strong investment it is important to analyze Sage Therapeutic's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Sage Therapeutic's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Sage Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sage Therapeutic to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Sage Stock refer to our How to Trade Sage Stock guide.Note that the Sage Therapeutic information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Sage Therapeutic's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Complementary Tools for Sage Stock analysis
When running Sage Therapeutic's price analysis, check to measure Sage Therapeutic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sage Therapeutic is operating at the current time. Most of Sage Therapeutic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sage Therapeutic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sage Therapeutic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sage Therapeutic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Sage Therapeutic's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sage Therapeutic. If investors know Sage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sage Therapeutic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (9.05) | Revenue Per Share 1.445 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 26.215 | Return On Assets (0.31) | Return On Equity (0.53) |
The market value of Sage Therapeutic is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sage Therapeutic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sage Therapeutic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sage Therapeutic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sage Therapeutic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sage Therapeutic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sage Therapeutic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sage Therapeutic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.