Guggenheim Alpha Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

SAOSX -  USA Fund  

USD 18.32  0.13  0.71%

Guggenheim Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Guggenheim Alpha historical stock prices and determine the direction of Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Guggenheim Alpha historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guggenheim Alpha to cross-verify your projections.

Guggenheim Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Guggenheim Alpha cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Guggenheim Alpha's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Guggenheim Alpha's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Guggenheim Alpha is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Guggenheim Alpha Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity on the next trading day is expected to be 18.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.007427, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.22. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guggenheim Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guggenheim Alpha's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Guggenheim Alpha Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Guggenheim Alpha Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Guggenheim Alpha's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guggenheim Alpha's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.64 and 18.73, respectively. We have considered Guggenheim Alpha's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.32
23rd of October 2021
18.18
Expected Value
18.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.0458
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0681
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0036
SAESum of the absolute errors4.2191
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Guggenheim Alpha. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Guggenheim Alpha

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guggenheim Alpha Opp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Alpha's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guggenheim Alpha in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
17.7818.3218.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
17.9018.4418.98
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
18.0718.3218.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guggenheim Alpha. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guggenheim Alpha's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guggenheim Alpha's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guggenheim Alpha Opp.

Other Forecasting Options for Guggenheim Alpha

For every potential investor in Guggenheim, whether a beginner or expert, Guggenheim Alpha's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guggenheim Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guggenheim. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guggenheim Alpha's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guggenheim Alpha could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guggenheim Alpha by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Guggenheim Alpha Opp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guggenheim Alpha's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guggenheim Alpha's current price.

Guggenheim Alpha Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Guggenheim Alpha shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Guggenheim Alpha mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Guggenheim Alpha Opportunity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Guggenheim Alpha Risk Indicators

The analysis of Guggenheim Alpha's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guggenheim Alpha's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Guggenheim Alpha stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Guggenheim Alpha without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guggenheim Alpha to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Guggenheim Alpha Opp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Guggenheim Alpha's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

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When running Guggenheim Alpha Opp price analysis, check to measure Guggenheim Alpha's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guggenheim Alpha is operating at the current time. Most of Guggenheim Alpha's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guggenheim Alpha's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guggenheim Alpha's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guggenheim Alpha to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Guggenheim Alpha's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Guggenheim Alpha value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guggenheim Alpha's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.