Scholastic Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SCHL Stock  USD 37.71  0.55  1.44%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Scholastic on the next trading day is expected to be 38.75 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.62  and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.54. Scholastic Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Scholastic stock prices and determine the direction of Scholastic's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Scholastic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Scholastic's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Scholastic's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Scholastic fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Scholastic to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Scholastic Stock please use our How to buy in Scholastic Stock guide.
  
At this time, Scholastic's Payables Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is expected to rise to 9.79 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 2.10. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 38.1 M. The value of Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to slide to about 46.9 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Scholastic Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Scholastic's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Scholastic's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Scholastic stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Scholastic's open interest, investors have to compare it to Scholastic's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Scholastic is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Scholastic. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Scholastic cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Scholastic's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Scholastic's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Scholastic is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Scholastic value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Scholastic Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Scholastic on the next trading day is expected to be 38.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Scholastic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Scholastic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Scholastic Stock Forecast Pattern

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Scholastic Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Scholastic's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Scholastic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.11 and 40.38, respectively. We have considered Scholastic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.71
38.75
Expected Value
40.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Scholastic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Scholastic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5384
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6155
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0161
SAESum of the absolute errors37.5433
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Scholastic. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Scholastic. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Scholastic

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Scholastic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Scholastic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.0637.6939.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.9447.4849.11
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
36.2238.1440.07
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
51.8757.0063.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Scholastic. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Scholastic's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Scholastic's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Scholastic.

Other Forecasting Options for Scholastic

For every potential investor in Scholastic, whether a beginner or expert, Scholastic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Scholastic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Scholastic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Scholastic's price trends.

Scholastic Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Scholastic stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Scholastic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Scholastic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Scholastic Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Scholastic's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Scholastic's current price.

Scholastic Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Scholastic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Scholastic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Scholastic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Scholastic entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Scholastic Risk Indicators

The analysis of Scholastic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Scholastic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting scholastic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Scholastic is a strong investment it is important to analyze Scholastic's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Scholastic's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Scholastic Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Scholastic to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Scholastic Stock please use our How to buy in Scholastic Stock guide.
Note that the Scholastic information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Scholastic's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for Scholastic Stock analysis

When running Scholastic's price analysis, check to measure Scholastic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Scholastic is operating at the current time. Most of Scholastic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Scholastic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Scholastic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Scholastic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Scholastic's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Scholastic. If investors know Scholastic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Scholastic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.156
Dividend Share
0.8
Earnings Share
1.39
Revenue Per Share
53.74
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0)
The market value of Scholastic is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Scholastic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Scholastic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Scholastic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Scholastic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Scholastic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Scholastic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Scholastic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Scholastic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.