Safeguard Scientifics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SFE -  USA Stock  

USD 7.59  0.14  1.81%

Safeguard Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Safeguard Scientifics historical stock prices and determine the direction of Safeguard Scientifics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Safeguard Scientifics historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Safeguard Scientifics naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Safeguard Scientifics systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Safeguard Scientifics fundamentals over time.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Safeguard Scientifics to cross-verify your projections.

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The current year Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 3.61, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 4.92. . Safeguard Scientifics Weighted Average Shares Diluted is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares Diluted was at 20.75 Million.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-08-20 Safeguard Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Safeguard Scientifics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Safeguard Scientifics' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Safeguard Scientifics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Safeguard Scientifics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Safeguard Scientifics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Safeguard Scientifics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Safeguard. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Safeguard Scientifics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Safeguard Scientifics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Safeguard Scientifics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Safeguard Scientifics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Safeguard Scientifics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Safeguard Scientifics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Safeguard Scientifics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.023013, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.43. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Safeguard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Safeguard Scientifics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Safeguard Scientifics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Safeguard ScientificsSafeguard Scientifics Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Safeguard Scientifics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Safeguard Scientifics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Safeguard Scientifics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.66 and 9.66, respectively. We have considered Safeguard Scientifics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.59
3rd of August 2021
7.66
Expected Value
9.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Safeguard Scientifics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Safeguard Scientifics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3388
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1218
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0166
SAESum of the absolute errors7.4277
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Safeguard Scientifics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Safeguard Scientifics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Safeguard Scientifics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Safeguard Scientifics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Safeguard Scientifics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Safeguard Scientifics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
5.597.599.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
6.808.8010.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
7.567.798.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Safeguard Scientifics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Safeguard Scientifics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Safeguard Scientifics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Safeguard Scientifics.

Other Forecasting Options for Safeguard Scientifics

For every potential investor in Safeguard, whether a beginner or expert, Safeguard Scientifics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Safeguard Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Safeguard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Safeguard Scientifics' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Safeguard Scientifics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Safeguard Scientifics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Safeguard Scientifics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Safeguard Scientifics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Safeguard Scientifics' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Safeguard Scientifics' current price.

Safeguard Scientifics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Safeguard Scientifics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Safeguard Scientifics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Safeguard Scientifics stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Safeguard Scientifics Investors Sentiment

The influence of Safeguard Scientifics' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Safeguard. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - SFE

Safeguard Scientifics Investor Sentiment

Greater number of Macroaxis users are at this time bullish on Safeguard Scientifics. What is your outlook on investing in Safeguard Scientifics? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Safeguard Scientifics to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Safeguard Scientifics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Safeguard Scientifics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Safeguard Stock analysis

When running Safeguard Scientifics price analysis, check to measure Safeguard Scientifics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Safeguard Scientifics is operating at the current time. Most of Safeguard Scientifics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Safeguard Scientifics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Safeguard Scientifics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Safeguard Scientifics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Safeguard Scientifics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Safeguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Safeguard Scientifics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Safeguard Scientifics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Safeguard Scientifics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Safeguard Scientifics underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Safeguard Scientifics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Safeguard Scientifics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Safeguard Scientifics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.