Safeguard Scientifics Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SFEDelisted Stock | USD 0.46 0.19 29.23% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Safeguard Scientifics Common on the next trading day is expected to be 0.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.34. Safeguard Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Safeguard Scientifics stock prices and determine the direction of Safeguard Scientifics Common's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Safeguard Scientifics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census. Safeguard |
Most investors in Safeguard Scientifics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Safeguard Scientifics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Safeguard Scientifics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Safeguard Scientifics simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Safeguard Scientifics Common are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Safeguard Scientifics prices get older. Safeguard Scientifics Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Safeguard Scientifics Common on the next trading day is expected to be 0.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Safeguard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Safeguard Scientifics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Safeguard Scientifics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Safeguard Scientifics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Safeguard Scientifics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.102 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -3.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0223 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.036 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.34 |
Predictive Modules for Safeguard Scientifics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Safeguard Scientifics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Safeguard Scientifics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
View Safeguard Scientifics Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Safeguard Scientifics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Safeguard Scientifics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Safeguard Scientifics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Safeguard Scientifics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Safeguard Scientifics Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Safeguard Scientifics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Safeguard Scientifics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Safeguard Scientifics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting safeguard stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.96 | |||
| Variance | 63.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 66.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 28.51 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census. Note that the Safeguard Scientifics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Safeguard Scientifics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Other Consideration for investing in Safeguard Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Safeguard Scientifics check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Safeguard Scientifics' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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