American Beacon Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SGACX Fund | USD 23.79 0.05 0.21% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Beacon Sga on the next trading day is expected to be 23.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.59. American Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Beacon stock prices and determine the direction of American Beacon Sga's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Beacon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Beacon to cross-verify your projections. American |
Most investors in American Beacon cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Beacon's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Beacon's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for American Beacon is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Beacon Sga value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. American Beacon Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Beacon Sga on the next trading day is expected to be 23.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Beacon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Beacon Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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American Beacon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Beacon's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Beacon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.89 and 24.50, respectively. We have considered American Beacon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Beacon mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Beacon mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4269 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1245 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.005 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.5917 |
Predictive Modules for American Beacon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Beacon Sga. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Beacon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for American Beacon
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Beacon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Beacon's price trends.American Beacon Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Beacon mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Beacon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Beacon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Beacon Sga Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Beacon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Beacon's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Beacon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Beacon mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Beacon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Beacon mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify American Beacon Sga entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23.79 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.25 |
American Beacon Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Beacon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Beacon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5736 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8507 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8095 | |||
| Variance | 0.6553 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8243 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7237 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.59) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Beacon in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Beacon's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Beacon options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Beacon to cross-verify your projections. Note that the American Beacon Sga information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Beacon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.