Surgery Partners Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SGRY Stock  USD 29.94  0.75  2.57%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Surgery Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 31.94 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.60  and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.41. Surgery Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Surgery Partners stock prices and determine the direction of Surgery Partners's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Surgery Partners' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Surgery Partners' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Surgery Partners' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Surgery Partners fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Surgery Partners to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Surgery Stock please use our How to Invest in Surgery Partners guide.
  
Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 0.43 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 21.71 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 131.9 M in 2024, whereas Net Loss is likely to drop (51.6 M) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Surgery Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Surgery Partners' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Surgery Partners' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Surgery Partners stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Surgery Partners' open interest, investors have to compare it to Surgery Partners' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Surgery Partners is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Surgery. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Surgery Partners cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Surgery Partners' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Surgery Partners' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Surgery Partners is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Surgery Partners value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Surgery Partners Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Surgery Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 31.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Surgery Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Surgery Partners' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Surgery Partners Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Surgery PartnersSurgery Partners Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Surgery Partners Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Surgery Partners' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Surgery Partners' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.08 and 34.79, respectively. We have considered Surgery Partners' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
29.94
31.94
Expected Value
34.79
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Surgery Partners stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Surgery Partners stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.5115
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6034
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.019
SAESum of the absolute errors37.4095
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Surgery Partners. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Surgery Partners. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Surgery Partners

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Surgery Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Surgery Partners' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.0929.9532.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
26.9538.7041.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
28.1229.2430.35
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
42.5746.7851.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Surgery Partners. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Surgery Partners' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Surgery Partners' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Surgery Partners.

Other Forecasting Options for Surgery Partners

For every potential investor in Surgery, whether a beginner or expert, Surgery Partners' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Surgery Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Surgery. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Surgery Partners' price trends.

Surgery Partners Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Surgery Partners stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Surgery Partners could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Surgery Partners by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Surgery Partners Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Surgery Partners' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Surgery Partners' current price.

Surgery Partners Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Surgery Partners stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Surgery Partners shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Surgery Partners stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Surgery Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Surgery Partners Risk Indicators

The analysis of Surgery Partners' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Surgery Partners' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting surgery stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Surgery Partners offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Surgery Partners' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Surgery Partners Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Surgery Partners Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Surgery Partners to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Surgery Stock please use our How to Invest in Surgery Partners guide.
You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

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When running Surgery Partners' price analysis, check to measure Surgery Partners' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Surgery Partners is operating at the current time. Most of Surgery Partners' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Surgery Partners' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Surgery Partners' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Surgery Partners to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Surgery Partners' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Surgery Partners. If investors know Surgery will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Surgery Partners listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.09)
Revenue Per Share
21.839
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.04
Return On Assets
0.0383
Return On Equity
0.0407
The market value of Surgery Partners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Surgery that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Surgery Partners' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Surgery Partners' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Surgery Partners' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Surgery Partners' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Surgery Partners' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Surgery Partners is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Surgery Partners' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.